2023 Israel Hamas War - Updates 3
Original Post Dec 1 2023:
https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1730601857406456008
All right, we are all back to work thank Gd!
Large forces were at work to extend the ceasefire. The Israeli media first among them, together with large parts of the security apparatus (part of Israel's deep sate or swamp), and of course the bulk of the international forces... Hamas, the the Biden administration, Europe and the UN all doing their best to save Hamas from the IDF.
Most here in Israel feared (or hoped if on the left) the endless talks would continue and the momentum for the military operation would be lost.
Though this is still a possibility, I knew that despite the many parties working to prematurely stop the IDF operation, the ones that chose, (Bilbi & the gov't coalition, as well as Gallant and Gantz in the War Cabinet) want it to continue and never said anything to the contrary (though many "gov't sources" did otherwise).
This Bibi is a new one, different from the master political navigator of the last decade, he is a Netanyahu that has declared to the almighty that come what may of his political career, legacy and his life itself, he will finish this well. Blinken and his threats are thus far futile.
Hamas of course, ran out of live hostages under its control, with yesterday already trying to swing 8 rather than 10 etc; especially of the right categories (women and children). It would like to extend indefinitely but simply could not. It has either killed and/or lost control of too many hostages.
I don't have time to comment on the next steps, as we continue activities here, but we can expect the IDF to finish the capture of Gaza city, still surrounded, and to extend operations to Khan Younis and elsewhere in the South.
The advance in the north at least should be much faster as Hamas forces, long under siege now should easily collapse. This in turn should help defense in the south slacken as well. Rocket fire from the strip will steadily drop to 0 as the IDF advances and Hamas collapses.
It seems the population will be told to move to different safe sectors at different times, as the areas are cleared, as to not tell them to move back north which would be absurd (from the Israeli perspective). Pressure hopefully will be maintained on Hamas so that the population may possibly move to Egypt. The Hamas fighters themselves have largely escaped alive and not stood and fought the IDF in the north. These are thousands of armed people, who wish to live. If pressure (ie the IDF merkavas) is coming from the north, they themselves may pierce the Egyptian border and flee. Others may then follow them. Many Gazans would be thrilled to move to Egypt if they could, but their Arab and Muslim neighbor keeps its border to them closed.
In the north things are likely to reignite again at least the degree prior to the ceasefire.
The US pressure for ceasefire will become much more evident now if not downright obviously hostile to Israel (Russia on the other hand, who respects a firm strategical player and a winner, has moderated its tune and warmed to Israel. This is why we saw desperate Hamas attempts to appease Putin by releasing Russian citizens "for free" - the "free" later recalled as Hamas wanted them counted towards the daily 10 towards Israel; as mentioned it ran out of live hostages in the category).
Hamas will make every declaration possible and every offer to stop the IDF. It will make every cynical and morbid use of the hostages it can think of. It may also lose control in creatin areas it still controls.
Our troops, as I know up close and personal, from the lowest to the highest ranks, just want the chance to take this to the finish line. To save all hostages that we can. To restore Israel's dignity and deterrence, that their kids not be called up to finish what they didn't.
Time will tell if Israel's leaders can sustain the pressure, and allow the IDF to reach a full victory.
Update 2
Original post Dec 3 2023:
https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1731408044511174864
The work continues.
We can expect the IDF to cut off another section of the strip north of Khan Younis, along Kisufim Road. Reaching the coast, the pincers can swing south to envelope Khan Younish from the west and northwards towards Wadi Gaza, to link up with the forces encircling Gazai city.
Meanwhile clearing the Gaza city pocket continues. Kahn Younis is a Hamas stronghold, and it is now under IDF assault.
The Israeli government yet holds, against Biden, Blinken, the UN, and the rest of the progressive forces bent on pressuring it to surrender. The IDF meanwhile, continues to make short work of our Hamas foes, who so valiantly slaughtered and kidnapped our women and children.
Hope to be able to update with more details and a deeper dive in a few days.
Update 3
Original Post Dec 8 2023:
https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1733092809484214532
The IDF's mighty Ugda 98 (98th Division is on the move).
The Paratrooper "Fire Formation", under Central Command was transferred to Southern Command to tackle the Hamas stronghold of Khan Younis.
The division includes the Regular (35th) Paratroopers Brigade as well as two Reserve Paratroopers Brigades (the 551st and the legendary 55th, spearhead of battles in IDF lore such as Ammunition Hill (in the Six Day War) and Stouthearted Men (where during the Yom Kippur War under Danny Matt (and Sharon's Division), the paratroopers crossed the Suez).
Additionally , the 98th Division includes the "Oz" Commando Brigade which includes some of the IDF's top special forces such as Maglan, Egoz and Duvdevan (though these are routinely "lent out" & under command of other field formations which require their services, such as
the 36th & 162nd Divisions fighting in the northern strip).
The Division also includes 5 Artillery Battalions (1 reg, 4 reserve) Combat engineers & other specialized units.
Perhaps most importantly, its current Commander Dan Goldfuss is made of the right stuff, reminiscent of IDF
figures of old. A son of South African immigrants, Goldfuss was my formation's commander at a previous job (of his), and was undoubtedly an excellent one.
Goldfuss, born and raised in Jerusalem, is not only an old fashioned commander but also a thinking one.
Back in 2018, he was asked about fighting in the Gaza tunnels, which are a constant fascination with Israeli and Western media.
Goldfuss replied "We strive to avoid the subterranean medium. What we have to do is turn the subterranean medium into a death trap for the other side."
Aligning quite well with another thinking soldier's opinion (
https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1725504978029027823 ),
the Brig Gen continued: "Look at history, at the battle of Okinawa. What did the Japanese say? 'We cannot cope with the Americans, so let's build tunnels.' They built three lines of defense made up of tunnels. They had intended to force the Americans to fight for every inch.
"Hamas says: I cannot resist the IDF. If the IDF wants to – it will conquer the entire Strip in a second. Consequently, I have to think of a way to turn their space into a death trap, to drive them out of their safe space. That is the name of the game. That is the battle. I want to deliver my advantages and my subterfuge to the battlefield....
We must practice our advantages & work on our disadvantages. They look for ways to kidnap an IDF trooper. They look for ways to turn a small incident into a major strategic event, & I look for ways to deny it to them, to kill them under the ground & not to play into their hands." Brig Gen Goldfuss commands a unit that was not attacked on Oct 7th, as part of Central Command.
He was among the first to mobilize his field formations, including reserve units ready by noon on Sat, and rush to stabilize the front. In the chaotic battles around the strip, his leadership was instrumental in establishing an organized front and repelling the invaders. After also helping out in the north, the division set out to train and prepare for the Gaza counteroffensive.
Days ago we briefly discussed the upcoming offensive in Khan Younis
https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1731408044511174864
It is here that the 98th Paratrooper "Fire Formation" under Brig. Gen Goldfuss was sent. Under good senior leadership, we can expect the formations to not rely on APC's, Hummers & other vehicles that are so often the target for opportunistic anti-tank missile attacks & the cause of so many of the IDF's casualties. Infantry can walk, & in coordination with tanks, defeat & deter both small arms fire teams (due to the tanks), and A-T teams due to the myriad of barrels coordinating with & guarding the armor.
Likewise we can expect the use of heavy firepower to avoid casualties and innovative tactics to go along with it. It is thus no surprise that we see the 98th's attack, changing the landscape
We previously discussed (https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1731408044511174864)
the attack on Khan Younis.
The attack did indeed begin along the Kisufim road. However, it then made a bold hook to the south, surprising Khan Younis's defenders from the north, quickly ending IDF tanks in the center of the Khan Y. The advance onwards to the coast as to further segment the strip is likely to continue, but was delayed in order to surprise attack the Hamas stronghold. Meanwhile it allowed civilians (& Hamas) to continue to escape (editing suriyak map)
southwards along the coastal highway. Some days ago I did know about the intended southwards hook, but could not comment on it for operational integrity. Now however, we can see Goldfuss' path on sat imagery.
Protecting his troops the units are clearing areas for advance parallel to the main highway as well as clearing areas for concentration, organization & re-supply, and rest. The built up areas of Jarara and As Sureji have been surrounded, and the center of Khan Younis penetrated, outflanking the eastwards facing defensive positions in the city and
threatening them from the west (their rear). Notice the visible path of the 98th Division on images taken on the 1st and 6th of the month. Today, the cauldron is closed and further advance has occurred into Khan Younis.
Thankfully thus far the casualties to the Division have
been light. Other units are primed to add another cauldron to the operation by encircling Khirbat Ikhza'a & Abasan al-Kabira from the south. This allow the IDF to advance on relatively open terrain and envelope urban areas that are disconnected from the main urban areas, allowing
for their relatively easy capture. Combined, they remove the highly entrenched (tunnels, mines, etc) swath of open territory from the expected line of advance on Khan Younis. This territory was to afford the defenders plenty of warning on an incoming advance, & inflict casualties on the IDF. The entrenched forces become a foregone capture rather than an asset to Hamas. In this way, heavily fortified eastern Khan Younis will be enveloped from both sides. A similar maneuver can occur on western Khan Younis in coordination from forces advancing southwards along the coast. The additional segmentation of the strip will allow also for the surrender and capture of the central strip in the areas of the Nuseirat camp. This will leave us once again with only Rafah left under Hamas control. A control they may lose even before the IDF arrives as we are seeing signs of both, a Hamas collapse (both in terms of resisting the IDF & controlling the territory still uncaptured by the IDF), and parts of the population criticizing & even resisting Hamas forces.
Will hope to comment further on the strategic implications of the situation that will unfold in Rafah. Meanwhile, the 36th & 162nd Divisions are clearing what remains of Hamas controlled Gaza city in the north, with success but heavy casualties (heavy not in absolute terms but much heavier than we would like to see), and the 98th Paratroopers Division now hours before reaching 1 week fighting within the Gaza strip, forging impressive advances along &within the Hamas stronghold and hometown of Khan Younis. As we celebrate Hanukkah and the accomplishments of our warrior Maccabee forefathers, the Paratroopers of the 55th, 35th, Duvdevan, and other units of the 98th prove that
Virtue against fury shall take up arms; and the fight be short;
For ancient valour
Is not dead in Judean hearts.
Update 4
The typical response to the above, followed by my counter:
https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1733144103288721442
Update 5
Original post on Dec 10 2023
https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1733789503486128490
https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo incorrect.
Update 6
Original post on Dec 10 2023:
https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1733826084095840664
The advance by Israel's 162nd and 36th Divisions continues, as planned and as we discussed. Gaza city's Hamas defenses, are rapidly collapsing.
Mass surrenders increase by the hour. Thicker lines indicate moves the IDF has already made, while thinner ones
https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1726998623093764388
potential future maneuvers. Gaza city is a massive city in terms of a military target. Large population, very dense urban territory (including ultra dense refugee camps) and highly entrenched through years of Hamas tunnel building, paid for large donations from the Arab & Western worlds. The IDF is battling in Hamas' two last major strongholds, Jabalya and Shejaiya. Once these fall, linking up with Israeli forces from the east will be relatively easily. During the last days, the IDF has steadily advanced through some of the densest urban areas, no longer being able to avoid them. The attacks however, have been from the west, and not from the east as the enemy would have expected. Once the city is further cut off into at least 3 if not more sectors, they should fall relatively easily and much faster.
This is what we have seen happen with other urban cauldrons (note the earlier maps vs this one, again using the suriyak map as a base). Once Gaza city is secured at a basic level & major combat ends there (the task of fully searching & clearing the city, including its tunnel network will take much longer) the divisions and large number of IDF forces will be available to assist in the south where the 98th Division (Paratrooper division) under Dan Goldfuss battles successfully in Khan Younis.
The collapse in Gaza city, will encourage a similar one in Khan Younis, a Hamas stronghold where Hamas leaders are likely hiding (along with hostages). Sinwar of course, expects (or at this point hopes) that the typically weak political will in Israel will save him, as further ceasefires are implemented. Otherwise, the IDF is on its way.
Though mainstream media and wokeists scream "genoicde" at pictures of fighting age men surrendering to the IDF (modern progressivism requires forgetting the meaning of words), the reality that the image convey are not lost on other Hamas fighters. They can surrender without being harmed or killed, and thus as I predicted, the images have encouraged further mass surrenders since they appeared just a couple of days ago, and these will only accelerate.
Hamas fighters of course, do not have to disarm, undress and surrender. They are free to fight to the death as they have sworn to do, and look forward to their 72 virgins awaiting in the afterlife.
As long as the Israeli government does not buckle under pressure, the Hamasniks and other terror group fighters (PFLP, DFLP, PIJ etc), will have one other option. To burst through the Egyptian border to escape.
Update 7
Original post on Dec 10 2023:
https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1733834017558945814
On October 7th, I promised that the images we would see going forward would be very different than the ones that flooded media that day.
https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1710678527534580135
And thus, thank Heavens, they are.
https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1733826084095840664
We see these....
Rather than these...
from the likes of these:
https://twitter.com/Eliran_Ben_Yair/status/1732853633698386147
Not so tough now.