Back from the Front - Gaza and 10th time is the Charm

Words not heeded in the Past. A real look at the conflict from Israel's perspective.

Time for an intelligent look at the conflict, today mostly still limited to Gaza, from an Israeli perspective. If not intelligent, at the least as usually is the case in our discussions, it will be very different from the common “knowledge” (“fallacies” more accurately) and the mainstream media line.

Being back from the front only for a day’s respite, my time to write is limited. Fortunately in this regard, and very unfortunately in many others, long ago have I written the most pertinent aspects regarding this conflict and Israel’s strategy, including both the relevant background and the strategic options.

Sadly, many of these points, with the Oct 7 massacre of Jews (and others) at the hands of Hamas in the rear view mirror, are strikingly prescient, while the strategic options I encouraged have remained unheeded. Thus we find ourselves yet again, facing the same enemies and the same noose slowly surrounding us.

Hopefully the extent of the torture, pillage and death dealt to Am Israel on that Sabbath and Holiday, as well as the sudden surprise in which it came, will have changed things enough in the minds of our people and leadership, to act differently moving forward.

In a November 2012 article (The Danger of “Peace”) correctly fearing that Israel would accept the false “peace” it was being offered (pressured into), and stop its ongoing Operation Pillar of Defense (Amud Anan) short of victory and political consequences for our foes, I observed the following:

But for the time being, that is all that the Israeli population expects, being bombarded by missiles. Yes there are casualties but it is thankfully no massacre at this point. If instead of rockets, on its way from Gaza would be thousands of Hamas “troops”, it is hard to imagine what the feeling would be. Panic does not do it justice. If thousands of armed Hamas terrorists were to spread across Israel’s cities, having defeated the IDF (let the heavens never permit it), the civilian reaction would be sheer maddening terror. Obviously, the Hamasniks would bring with them indescribable horror, pillage, rape, torture and murder.

Citing this same 2012 piece, two years later (Gaza – The Big Picture and What Israel Should Do (have done)) I spoke about the feeling of combat reserve soldiers, the life blood of Israel, being abused by weak national politics, likely being forced to battle the same enemy for the same piece of land over and over again.

Here we are. Many years later, still having to quote this yet again.

How did we get here? Where can we go? So let’s take a look.

Only a few years ago, troubled by the current political & strategic climate, I discussed the importance of the 2019 election in this light, with a big emphasize on Gaza and Hamas. The piece is a good summary of much of my thinking and cites many important sections of older pieces. The 2019 Israeli Election & Some Memories. Vote Right!. I will be doing something similar here.

This is not an objective article. I am a party to this conflict, and I am a patriot, as good men ought to be. Not to a political machine, or even a state, but to my nation. I do not support my people because it has more rights or a better argument than another people, but because they are my people, and to support them my duty. No different than how any man loves and protects his mother, above all other mothers, without having verified by the scientific method if indeed his mother is the world’s best, most deserving, or more justified mother in the world.

This article is meant foremost to illuminate my brothers and how to best behave going forward. Secondarily, it is meant for any person of any people who wishes to learn more about this conflict, or in this case regarding at least one side’s perspective, than the shallow platitudes thrown around on social and mainstream media. Finally, it hopes to find in the Western reader, as well as those opposed to what the West has in modern times become, a plea, in this case focused around Israel and her surrounding foes, to regain the path towards the sunlit uplands, and off the crooked trail to decay and death which it currently finds itself in.

Ironically, in strength, dignity and pride for our heritage, we are more likely to find understanding and even often peace with our foes, as opposed to the death and destruction we invite in our weakness and at the hands of our enemies who we encourage to disdain, rather than respect us.

With this in mind, for those who want a more general background to the “palestinian” issue, this 2011 piece, The Palestinian UN Bid; The Danger and Folly, is apt (likewise freely skip this section if desired). Incredibly, a decade a half later, the same Abu Mazen discussed throughout still reigns over Fatah and the PA undemocratically. For our purposes, we can quote it to note that a palestinian state is incompatible with Israel’s survival.

Given these realities, Israel can simply not survive the creation of this Palestinian State. The Israeli public has been promised endlessly: peace and no further withdrawals, if they only accept “this” painful concession in order to make it the last. Because of Israelis huge desire for peace, it has accepted time and again. Israelis were promised peace if they only pulled out of Lebanon, which was immediately followed by Hezbollah’s rise to power and bombardment by thousands of missiles and mortars of Israel’s north and a subsequent war. The same was said of a withdrawal from Gaza (along with the forced removal of 10,000 Jews from their homes) which was immediately thanked by missiles and shelling from Gaza which continues to date.

The prevailing wisdom in Israel is that A withdrawal from the West Bank, leaves Israel a coastal strip less than 10 km wide in (7 km at the narrowest point) and a demographic impossibility of remaining a Jewish state. While the PA is promised this archaic concept of a “Jewish-free” State that the IDF must provide by physical transfer of its own people, Israel continues to count with near 2 million Arab citizens with full rights and liberties. This along with the loss of the Judea, Judaism’s most holy sites, Jerusalem and the subsequent need to withdraw from the Golan Heights would be the final blow as they are a strategic necessity for Israel’s security. The entire remaining land mass would be within reach of rocket and mortar fire that would undoubtedly commence immediately.

A Palestinian State is simply incompatible with Israel’s survival, and the Arab World is all too aware of this. If a Palestinian state threatens the very existence of Israel, then what about their “right” to a state?

I discuss the above, while accepting our foes’ desire to end our independence. I do not judge it, just face it.

I for one, do not judge their goals. They have deep seeded beliefs in owning all of this land, and if simply the presence of US troops in Saudi Arabia was enough to send people like Bin Laden on Jihad, then obviously the presence of a Jewish state (no matter how tiny and invisible on a world map), in the middle of the Muslim World is unacceptable to a great many. I do not hold against them their desire to have the land (though we should most definitely condemn their methods, namely terror). Israel too, wants the land, and this is an unbridgeable gap between the two sides. What would be beneficial for Israel and the Western World, is to not blind themselves from that fact.

Lastly it would be amiss not to quote this line, which relates a truth still just as often ignored in the West and mainstream media:

Terror is a tactic, and we can be at war with it no more than at war with Tanks or Ak-47s or scissors[iv]. We are at war with people who happen to often chose terror as a tactic.

Regarding the Gaza strip specifically, first let’s take a look at what why it even is. In August 2014’s Gaza – The Big Picture and What Israel Should Do (have done), we discussed the strip’s background:

If we are to consider a reasonable, modest and positive future plan, the past of the strip must be taken into account. What is the Gaza Strip to begin with?

It must be noted that it is not an entity with any deep geographic, cultural or political past as an entity itself. Two main urban centers exist in the Strip, Khan Younis and Gaza city, which the strip has been named after. At its southern end is Rafiah along the Egyptian border.

Historically, what is today the Gaza strip has been continuously linked to the rest of Judea and the land of Israel. King Saul and King David fought the European (Aryan or Indo-European) ¨Sea Peoples¨ in the area that invaded the coastal areas of Near Eastern kingdoms long before classical antiquity. The Bible immortalizing them as Philistines (a people of absolute no relation to the Arabic speaking Muslim population often termed palestinian today). The strip continued to be ruled by the Jewish Kingdom, including the Hasmonean Kingdom after the famous Maccabee Revolt. It is specifically referenced in the Book of Judges by Joshua as part Eretz Israel.

The strip usually was ruled by whichever power ruled the rest of Judea and/or Israel. It was often under jurisdiction of eastern empires such as the Assyrians and Persians, or Egyptian ones such as under the Ptolemies. Ancient Jewish sites including synagogues are found throughout the strip, including the Jewish Quarter of Gaza city. Gaza city itself has had an uninterrupted Jewish presence from the time Jews first roamed Judea until 1929 when Arab riots murdered and chased out the remaining Jews. A 16th century Ottoman Census, has the majority of the inhabitants in Gaza City as Jews. Ottoman censuses of the 16th century show a thriving Jewish community.

It also had a very significant Christian community until the Islamic conquest which turned most of the churches into Mosques and forcefully virtually eliminated the Christian community by the start of the modern period. Even after 1929, Jewish presence quickly resumed. For example, Kfar Darom was purchased by Tuvia Miller the following year (1930); 250 dunams (~62 acres) and named after a Talmudic era Jewish town by the same name in the area.

A kibbutz was established in Kfar Darom, and in 1948, after fierce resistance, the village was abandoned and overrun by the Egyptian army. The Gaza strip, was subsequently “Jew Free” only during the 19 years between 1948 and its liberation in the 1967 Six Day War – Nineteen years out of the millenia of continuous Jewish prescence, a prescence far predating any known historical reference to Arabs at all anywhere, and certainly the establishment of Islam by Muhammed starting in 610 CE.

So ultimately, the Gaza Strip is simply a part of Israel, originally not separated  ethnically, culturally or geographically in any way from the rest of it. The population of Gaza was quite sparse at the outset of the 1948 Israel independence war, and many of the Muslim or Arab clans in the region were recent arrivals, both from Egypt and Turkey. Yasser Arafat himself, the ultimate symbol of “palestinian” nationhood was himself born in Cairo, an Egyptian citizen.

So where does the political notion of the Gaza strip come from? Quite simply it extends from Israel’s Negev-Sinai border to where we (the IDF) was able to stop the Egyptian columns. As the article continues:

So where did its recognition as an entity come from? Quite simple… The Gaza strip is the strip of land the Egyptian army was able to conquer during the 1948 war, and it ends, where Israel was able to stop the Egyptian armored columns. Had they not stopped them where they did, the “Gaza strip” would be longer and larger, the column was headed for Tel-Aviv up the coastal road.

To be more precise, the Egyptian army had gotten even further, up to today’s Ashdod (an undisputed part of Israel today). The previously mentioned Kfar Darom stopped the Egyptian onslaught (often with no more than a couple of dozen defenders against both regular Egyptian army troops and Muslim Brotherhood units) from December 7 1947 to July 9th 1948 when Kfar Darom was evacuated by the IDF. Subsequently, the Egyptians pushed further up the coastal road, to be driven back near the end of the war to roughly today’s Gaza northern border.

Interestingly as is discussed with more detail in the article, the Egyptian forces were actually surrounded both in the Fallujah pocket and in today’s Gaza strip. While Israel retained the territory within the Falujja pocket, threats of military intervention by the United Kingdom, saved the Egyptian troops in the strip from surrender and led to its control by Egypt, ultimately leading to today’s political notion of the Gaza Strip.

By the turn of the century, Israel (since 1947) had first lost the strip (or much of it) and then subsequently taken it and withdrawn from it at least 3 times, well before Hamas ever controlled it. Each of these was in battle with Egypt. Only in the last withdrawal during the 90’s and the Oslo accords, was the withdrawal not in favor of Egyptian forces but rather an autonomous Palestinian Authority.

This is not to mention the myriad of incursions and withdrawals that have occurred since the Hamas takeover in the early 2000’s. The article concludes that:

It has been shown that the IDF has time and again, seized what is the Gaza strip in a mere couple of days. It has been shown that always withdrawing, Israel has invited further bouts of conflict. It has been shown that aerial campaigns alone do not work with current technology, as they simply kill large number of civilians and cannot defeat a determined enemy. It has also been shown that Israel has as much right to the strip’s territory as anyone else, and its current regime holds it by breaching every agreement that Israel has agreed to in exchange for territorial withdrawals.

We also discussed the much greater effectiveness and diminished civilian casualties in ground offensives meant to capture territory rather than aerial campaigns, made to “punish” an enemy before whom you are impotent to advance on. Here regarding the 1967 Six Day War recapture of the strip:

The UN received reports, though which are often exaggerated, that “dozens, perhaps hundreds, of non-combatants killed in the street fighting”. As is typical, all non-uniformed combatants which included all the Fedayeen and many of the Egyptian troops were counted as non-combatants. But even if the full numbers claimed by the Arabs are accepted, the civilian casualties of the conquest of the entire Gaza strip, heavily fortified not only by the local population and terrorist organizations but also by a heavy presence of the Egyptian military, are remarkably small. When one considers that many if not the vast majority of those were actually enemy combatants, then the statistic is truly astounding.

But the reason is not. Israel’s leaders sent in the IDF to capture the territory and defeat any enemy who resists, instead of bombing the strip flat in a senseless air campaign. IDF soldiers on the ground know what they are shooting at, and they do not shoot at old ladies and children, but rather at enemies. With the firepower and confusion of modern war, mistakes are still made, but nothing of the scale of an air campaign.

Having understood the “Strip” in its context, let us now return to the more modern bouts and rounds of fighting.

Appeasement and the Rise of Hamas

In 2012, I explained how the politics of appeasement has brought us to our current position.

First – Appeasement

Of course the response is first one of fear, and want to appease. When terrorists struck the streets of Tel-Aviv in the early 2000’s in the form of Suicide bombers, Israel was convinced that it must leave Gaza (really meaning Gush Katif) to appease the terrorists. This would undoubtedly bring peace.

It did not matter that under similar pressure, Israel had actually left the Gaza strip in the early 90s and that it had been fully independent already for over a decade by then. No “settler” (a Jewish person) or Israeli soldier walked the streets of Arab Gaza, they suffered under their own corrupt Fatah armed policemen, but still they were somehow under Jewish “occupation”. Why? Adjacent to Arab Gaza, several small communities together formed Gush Katif and housed 10,000 Jews. There was precisely zero Arabs living in Gush Katif and so it was mind-blowing to call it part of an occupation. Only Jews lived there.

However, since they lived partly on lands lands retaken and liberated by Israel (as they had mostly first been captured by Egypt in the 1948-49 War of Independence) during the Six day war in 1967, they argued that they should be considered part of Gaza and handed over – ethnically cleansed of Jews of course. Well, to be more precise  they did not argue, no arguing was needed, the campaign was simply called and is still remembered as the “Disengagement” from Gaza in late 2005.

Because of the public’s short political memory span, the debate mirrored that of the early 1990’s when Israel had in fact already left Gaza. No one then had even suggested that Israel leave the neighborhoods of Gush Katif, where there were only Jews, while Gaza had over a million Arabs; why would Jewish areas have to be evacuated? The issue everyone said, was about not ruling over a 1 million Arabs who did not wish to be ruled.

In any event, the old debate was rehashed, and ironically over the same arguments about Israel not ruling over a million Arabs in Gaza (who were already not being ruled by Israel), Gush Katif was forcefully evacuated by the IDF (illegally, since under Israeli law, soldiers are not policemen and are not allowed to deal with the public). Arab Gazans simply were given new lands that they had never before lived in. Empty (cursed by locals) sand dunes where Israelis had created beautiful small towns and agricultural establishments. In fact 80% of Israel’s lettuce was grown in Gush Katif, as were much of the winter tomatoes exported to the EU.

The right argued that not only would the Arabs see this (correctly) as a triumph for terrorism, and embolden them to continue it, but that the extra land will put them just that much closer to main population centers in Israel. Their rockets will now reach further. It only look a few days to prove them correct, when the city of Ashkelon was bombed for the first time.

Today, that range extended all the way to Israel’s political, industrial and commercial heartland of Tel-Aviv.

Now Israel was backed into a corner. I continued:

Backed to a Corner

After the initial response of appeasement, Israel is now backed into a corner. Should Ashekelon be given over to Gaza next? There are no more 1967 lands to hand over to them. Gaza is seen as continuously oppressed by Israel by the world’s media no matter what it does..they are often referred to as “caged in”. Israel does not cage in Gaza any more so than any other nation. Can an Arab citizen of Gaza walk into the US without citizenship nor Visa? Germany? Norway? How about Egypt (they were all Egyptian citizens as Egypt ruled Gaza pre-1967)?

Israel does not let an Arab without Israeli citizenship or a valid Visa enter Israel just like any other country does not. When Israel  ruled Gaza, back in the 80s and early 90s, commerce and travel was commonplace between Jews who would go to Gaza to enjoy the beautiful beach and ethnic cuisine, and Gazans who worked and traveled inside Israel. The world insisted that that was illegal occupation and Israel evacuated Gaza, despite that it has never gotten anything in return other than terror and death.

But if Israel left Gaza so long ago why is it still oppressing it according to everyone? Gaza is small and densely populated? Why yes it is, and what is the world doing about it? Israel is pretty small too… has Canada donated some land to the Gazans? Or what about given them visas?

One does not have to go as far as Canada (chosen at random as a big country – no offence Canada – we actually greatly admire your current PM), Egypt’s case is most striking yet receives no coverage. Yasser Arafat himself, national symbol of the Palestinians was born in Cairo and was an Egyptian. Gaza was Egyptian until 1967, and its population were Egyptian citizens. Today, Hamas controlled Gaza and Egypt share a border, Egypt is a large country with vast lands (including the neighboring and  nearly empty Sinai), why does it not let fellow Arab, Muslim and one could argue Egyptian, Gazans in?

Simply because that would be to everyone’s benefit in including Israel’s. They are a thorn at Israel’s side that no Arab country is interested in removing. While no amount of wars were able to crush Israel, this palestinian issue is the one doing Israel in as it struggles to cope with it. Instead of Gazans flowing out to Egypt (Sharon’s original plan), there are weapons flowing in. Weapons that today hit Tel-Aviv, and are likely Iranian built and almost certainly brought in through the Egyptian border.

Neither the Gazans themselves nor the world in general were ok with the Arab population of Gaza living under Israeli rule. So it gave it up. Surely therefore no one is suggesting that they retake them then. But why is there no pressure or even suggestion that Egypt do so?

And if no one does, yes Gazans will continue to live in Gaza, in the independent land they so desperately said they wanted. Yes it is relatively small, as is Israel who should not make it any bigger. Yes it is relatively poor (unlike the West Bank under Israeli rule). The world is free to enrich Gazans with land and money as they see fit. The fact that they are small and poor is not Israel’s doing. In fact, what little economic activity that does take place actually takes place as trade with Israel. The few visas and travel permits given to Gazans are also given by Israel either to travel to the West Bank or Israel proper.

After discussing the false reporting on the Israeli “Blockade”, I discussed the geographic and political consequences that attack on a nation must trigger, if that nation wishes to be left in peace. In this case, it is key that there be territorial consequences.

The current situation not only presents dangers, but also great opportunities. Israel has the ability to break out of this enclosing Noose, (original article on this Noose over a year ago) and deal her enemies a mighty blow that can usher more decades of peace and stability with security and strength. But there must be a plan, a repeat of the 2009 Cast Lead under the incompetent PM Olmert is not what we need. My report predicting the wasteful and inconclusive end of Cast Lead in 2009.

Actions must have consequences, and endless tit for tat are not the kind of consequences that deter Israel’s Islamist enemies. Gazans and the world must realize that attacking Israel (especially bombing civilian cities indiscriminately) has consequences. Before the Lighthouse keeper himself must have to go off (and pause writing articles)  and help enact Bibi’s chosen response, let me present a suggestion.

Gush Katif’s forceful evacuation was a shameful blot on our history, and given as a token of great goodwill to our enemies. The IDF would do well to re-establish these legally Jewish lands (many purchased by Jews during the British mandate period) , and declare them never to be handed over again. Further Arab aggression should have a similar response.

If it is land that the Arab enemies want so badly, then they must realize killing Jews will make them lose more of it, and not vice versa as is the current policy. The Arab world must be given a very simple choice; to accept the tiny single Jewish state on earth that is not even visible on a world map in peace and tranquility which we welcome, or face its expansion. If that was the choice given, the outcome would be no worse than Israel having to accept it will remain rather small.

The last two decades however, have seen Israel pushed on by a foolish Western World, offer quite the opposite choice… the more Jews you kill, the more land you get. It has led us to this point, after withdrawing from Lebanon,  from the Sinai, from Zone A (PA), from Samaria, from Gaza, from Gush Katif, our enemies under the cloud of Iran terrify the world and engulf us from every side.

The piece concludes noting the rotten fruits of appeasement, as opposed to the relative security and peace victory had earlier brought us, and a with a hope that our government will have the courage to act correctly.

The peace and stability that was hard earned through wars like the Six Day War and the Yom Kippur War, peace and stability understood even by our enemies, men like Mubarak, Tantawi and Suleiman (now all dispatched by the Western backed Islamists), has been lost to decades of weakness and appeasement.

We have one of the better leaders we have had in a long time under Bibi Netanyahu, Am Israel stands behind him; as part of and staunchest supporters of the Western World, we would like to stand with friends together, but we will stand just the same.

Cast Lead, Pillar of Defense and other refusals at Victory.

Back when Hamas was much weaker and less prepared, PM Olmert launched a campaign against it. The IDF’s achievements and light casualties were very impressive. Olmert knew how to turn the events into defeat for Israel, and establish a pattern in which Hamas could not only exist but keep growing stronger.

In early 2009, I commented on the operation and Olmert’s pathetic “unilateral ceasefire”.

First, the mainstream consensus about the IDF’s ability was proven wrong:

The IDF was making this task rather difficult, having made Hamas eat many of their own words about the supposedly “impregnable” Gaza. Booby trapped, mined, the most concentrated urban place in the world with the highest per capita militant ratio anywhere, supposedly guarded by Hizbolla and Iranian funded, trained and equipped 25,000 strong Hamas “security forces”, the task long terrified senior Israeli authorities. Big words and threats from small people to scare even smaller ones.

The junior officers and soldiers knew better (I know from experience), let us at them and we will make short work of them.

I raged at the weakness of our government and the loss of deterrence it was executing.

And even now, with victory at hand, with the great world outcry and CNN attention span I predicted would simmer down if ignored, with the Hamas leadership hiding without cell phones (and many dead including one of the top three), out of the cabinet we get the announcement:

Worry not, we have figured out how to lose this one too. How to cheapen the sacrifice of the young men, how to humiliate the nation and ensure incentives for future attacks. Yes, other would-be enemies should tremble in fear, lest we throw at them this Cabinet creation more suited for an SNL punchline..

UNILATERAL CEASEFIRE.

In a few hours, they will vote. Little has to be explained about this concept. It is an oxymoron. Desperately trying to end this second war Olmert started without knowing how to finish… the age old traditional way of ending them still alludes him… “Winning!”

The only things you can do unilaterally is Win or Lose. The rest takes two to tango.

Then in early 2012, we discussed how Iran’s Preemptive Strike was working. Keeping Israel ever a smaller regional player, besieged from the north (Hezbollah) and south (Hamas) by proxies, it was contained while Iran played an ever larger role in the region and developed its WMD project in peace. This strategy, easily recognized then is still thriving today. Hope to be able to soon say that it is no longer doing so.

Here we first identified Iran as a military paper tiger.

Iran, in reality, is a giant paper tiger built up by the media, the left, and the many years of unexplainable refusal by the West to face it down. Iran by now believes its own hype of being a powerful Regional mini super power.

This fallacy will be better explained elsewhere and in more detail, but though the Iranian regime seems to believe in its economic, regional, religious and political power, (and perhaps even military power when it comes to resisting an actual invasion or occupation by the west), it is all to painfully aware of its extremely limited capabilities for responding to any Israeli attack.  This very lack of response, could deflate the paper tiger, humiliate the regime, spur the opposition into action, and doom it to collapse.

Iran has a limited ability to send its Shahab-3 missiles directly to Israel.  Iran is limited by the number of these available, their accuracy, payload vs range capacity, and most importantly by the sheer impregnability of the Israeli airspace. Israel has been developing a missile shield ever since the US provided Patriot missile batteries that proved only somewhat effective against Iraq’s Scud missiles during the first Gulf War in 1991. Improved versions of the Patriot system, followed by the Israeli Arrow System and finally the Iron Dome batteries now operational make Israel’s skies the most protected on earth. Of course, Israel’s small size is helpful in this regard, as though the US has comparable technology (though probably not as developed in this specific regard), it is a giant country spanning a continent and would be much more difficult to protect completely.

These Israeli missile batteries are close to being able to stop barrages of small rockets launched from only a few kilometers away, be they Kassams and Grad Rockets from Gaza, or Ketushas from Lebanon (the sad irony of Israel “intercepting” homemade flying pipes with million dollar high-tech missiles is another subject. They are in fact making the random rockets score huge “hits” as their $20 pipes destroy millions of dollars of IDF equipment instead of landing harmlessly in open fields).

The ease in which a very small number of large missiles (larger targets in the sky)  such as Scuds or the Shahab missiles could be stopped from such a large distance is easy to imagine.  All of this is ignoring and exluding the IAF, one of the most, if not the most, advanced Air forces in the world, and the fact it would likely destroy a significant part of any long range Iranian ballistic capability during the the initial strike.

All of this leaves Iran with little power to directly strike Israel. Alternatives are hard to imagine.

We identified Iran’s only real military options as attacks by proxies, as has thus far been proven to be the case. But even at this early stage, we discussed Nasrallah’s calculations and the potential for his refusal to follow Iranian commands. Iran has influence with Hezbollah, as it pays the bills, but it does not control it outright. More on this later.

We are left with Iran’s only real weapon of retaliation. It remains the same as it has been for years, retaliation through proxies, namely Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Despite sensationalist headlines about WWIII and nightmare scenarios about the repercussions of a strike on Iran, there is realistically little Iran can do other then “order” Gaza terrorists and Hizbollah to lob missiles and rockets at Israel. There is no assurance, that Nasrallah, shrewd leader of Hezbollah, would obey such an order. The consequences for not doing so can only be loss of support and funding from the regime. This will happen anyways if the regime collapses, so Nasrallah may not wish to go down with his Iranian patrons (it would likely be dependent on the success of the Israeli strike). Though it suffered a terrible blow in 2006 at the hands of the IDF, Hezbollah knows it was lucky in the incompetence of the Olmert led government government and its inability to bring about a political victory in the Second Lebanon War. The IDF having learned its lessons, and with Netanyahu being no Olmert, Nasrallah knows all too well this round would be different. Israel launching any kind of attack on Iran includes planning for stopping any bombardment from Lebanon and the destruction of Hezbollah (at least from Southern Lebanon).

This overall inability to have any real answers to an Israeli attack, has pushed Iran into desperation. Senior officials often quote how they would “obliterate” Israel within hours of being attacked, rushed and amateurish terrorist plots have been hastily ordered abroad, and, with those measures having failed so far, Iran has pressed for a more real confrontation.

By having Hamas and Islamic Jihad assault Israel with this fury of missiles, it essentially bogs down Israel and the IDF. As usual, though Israel can relatively easily deal with her classic state enemies on the battlefield, she has no answers for the “palestinians”. The appearance of the entire might of the IDF bogged down in inconclusive operations in Gaza would most likely deter Israel from executing any plan on Iran. Basically, Iran has executed her “nightmarish retaliation” preemptively.

Had this retaliation happen after an Israeli strike on Iran, it would seem extremely benign compared to expectations. A humiliation for the Iranian regime. Instead, happening now, it has the opposite effect. If Israel can barely handle its own borders now, how can it possible even think about striking at Iran.

Concluding that piece are the thoughts that Iran is the true strategic enemy that Israel must defeat, and the question of whether Nasrallah will or already had refused to do Iran’s bidding.

The question is weather Iran ordered Nasrallah to strike as well, and if he has already refused, or is keeping that wildcard in reserves. Finally, the question is how much pressure will Hamas and Islamic Jihad be able to take before they invariably ask for a ceasefire as the IDF’s response intensifies. Hopefully, the Netanyahu government will ignore them and not entertain those terrorist groups in negotiations, and keep its eye on the ball… Iran. No operation should be started in Gaza or anywhere else without it being part of a larger part to finally tame this paper tiger before its unfortunate acquiring of Nuclear weapons makes it a very real tiger; and ironically finally brings about the possible “nightmarish scenarios” that everyone seems to erroneously fear now.

Next in late 2012 we discussed The Danger of “Peace”, already cited early herein. First we discussed the threat of the pressure to stop before victory, and the abuse it entails of Israel’s men who willingly go off to war when our leaders call upon us.

Firstly, as G W Bush would say, Israel must “stay the course”. Israel must not (as is most often case unfortunately) waste this opportunity and her soldier’s lives when having right on her side, has convinced the world of her right to self defense and that Hamas is nothing more than a terrorist organization bent on death and destruction, only to then sign a truce or worse (peace treaty?) with them. Israel must persist until victory.

It is sad that in Israeli politics, what would be unimaginable in many countries, is perfectly commonplace. Would the US sign a peace treaty with Al-Qaeda? For Israeli officials, to sit across the table from Hamas leaders who according to law should be arrested on sight, negotiate with them and then sign a treaty with them is as absurd as it is shameful. Israel cannot expect to be surprised when other nations deal with Hamas and other terrorist groups (like Fatah), when Israel herself does so as well.

Does Israel expect the world to be more pro-Israel than she herself is? Only the GOP in the US can do that (and ironically gain few Jewish votes by doing so).

Therefore, the slow pace thus far of the operation is of some concern. Though there was great big headlines about 75 thousand reserve troops being called up, few of those have actually been called up (the IDF only announced an initial 16 thousand at the outset of the Operation). Without getting into any operational details, Israel must maintain the pace of its call ups (though not necessarily announce them) and launch a ground operation soon before inertia itself will pressure Israel to that shameful ceasefire.

During the last incarnation of the current events, in 2009 Prime Minister Olmert stopped Operation Cast Lead dead in its tracks before a knockout blow could be dealt on Hamas. The IDF performed outstandingly, 13 IDF soldiers gave their lives (10 due to friendly fire), many more were wounded, and with Hamas broken and on the run (suffering mass desertions as its fighters did not prove to be all they were cracked up to be), and the last built up areas cut off and surrounded, Olmert called the IDF out.

Weary citizen soldiers, family men who left their civilian jobs and their loved ones, marched out still carrying a disturbing stabbing feeling. These men not only loyally showed up when called but performed professionally and heroically, and at the brink of victory after all their sacrifice, they were ordered out by a leadership who unlike them, had lost its nerve.

As happy as they were to stop fighting, to come back to their families, and as far as they had pushed themselves physically and emotionally after weeks of stressful and complex urban warfare, they could not help but feel that they would soon be called back into that hell, having let that victory so close at hand slip away. To do that to them yet again, requires talents hard to describe in words.

Next we put the daunting task of defeating Hamas in perspective. While there is no question of the IDF’s ability to lead with the undisciplined murderous mob militia, it is no simple matter either.

Let me be clear about their feat… let not the military gap between the IDF and the Gaza terror groups fool you. It is well known that the most powerful and advanced armies have nightmares, and they are always bout urban warfare. Insurgencies, terrorism and guerrilla warfare in dense urban cities remain the most difficult enemies for modern armies.

Ask the United States. Successful in Iraq only after nearly a decade of war, a massive cost and effort, and the most stubborn of leadership under George W Bush. Many others would have failed. In Afghanistan, well past a decade later, victory not only remains as elusive, but under the Obama administration, already just a dream – the surrender and withdrawal date already set.

During the first Battle of Fallujah in 2004 for example, the 1st Marine Division, with what amounts to at least 3 brigades in addition to many other elements (including special forces teams, a tank battalion, elements from other divisions, and close Air Support) failed to take Fallujah, a small city of 250,000 people (pre-invasion) whose residents had largely fled before the assault.

The residents of Fallujah (and Iraq in general) were not experienced militants nor soldiers. The Iraqi army was in neglected shape due to sanctions and budgetary constraints. It had been largely destroyed by the US in the 1st Gulf War in 1991. There was little if any training and no combat experience since 1991. Even prior to the gulf war, whenever they had sent “elite” units as symbolic help to the Arab cause during Israel’s wars (a brigade here and there), the Iraqis had performed far worse than their Syrian and Jordanian counterparts (more used to warfare with Israel), and were easily identified by the Israeli soldiers due to their inexperience in movement and tactics.

The Arabs in Gaza on the other hand, caught up in the “palestinian” movements, are professional militants. Youngsters in the street learn to throw rocks at IDF checkpoints before they learn to read. From there,  firebombs, shootings, and terrorism follow. Fatah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the PLO, PFLP, the DFLP, the PLF and a score of other terror and/or guerrilla groups have led life in the West Bank and Gaza for decades.

Gaza is the most densely populated place on earth. The strip has 1.7 [now 2] million people, 7 times the population of Fallujah, and unlike in that city, they cannot flee anywhere during an assault. Gaza city alone has half a million people. Unlike other areas with terrorist insurgencies, in Gaza the terrorists are not the few hiding among the many, but rather in complete control of the land. Hamas in fact, is Gaza’s government and rules Gaza autocratically (democratically elected). Gaza is therefore the most densely populated place on earth with what amounts to the most militant population in the world. It has been booby-trapped, and prepared for invasion by the IDF for years, well armed by Arab oil wealth, Iran and Egypt.

Simply to win in Gaza is an achievement few if any modern armies could match, let alone win without any civilian casualties and collateral damage which Hamas does its best to produce.

Such operation should not be taken without the clearest of goals, and this is precisely the second principle which must guide Israel’s policy.

In the discussion of what those clear and objective goals should be, we first analyzed the lack of Israeli deterrence. It could clearly be seen in the different fears among both populations.

The article continues, describing the two reasons:

• First, because of the IDF’s chivalrous and moral behavior. The population knows the IDF soldiers will conduct no murder, theft nor rape. No pillage and plunder. An IDF platoon might enter into an apartment and search for hidden cache of weapons. None found, it will then leave with the Arab family left unmolested.

• Secondly, the Arab enemy sees no political consequence. The IDF might come into Gaza, score some blows against the organization true, but also suffer casualties and world condemnation. Afterwards, it will simply leave and Gaza will be exactly where it is now. Hamas will have years more of propaganda material. Economic hardships can be blamed on the incursion, and they can portray themselves as valiant protectors who stood up the IDF might, even if all most of them did was lob rockets at Israel to anger her to incursion, and then run and hide until she exists once again. Israel, tired of incursions that have no long lasting effect, will once again be tempted to bribe them with more “land for peace”.

It stands to reason that a weaker entity, would be terrified of provoking a neighboring larger one to invasion, and yet Gaza is not. Israel must change that. Gazans should be most definitely terrified of launching rockets at Israel’s cities. They are not. They cheer them instead.

One of the above must change. I would argue that the first should not, and that our IDF should remain a moral and chivalrous army. This leaves us with the second option. There must be political consequences to attacking us, and I do not mean offerings of “land for peace” which amounts to tribute (usually historically paid by the weaker party to the stronger, and not vice versa).

The article continues explaining the importance of territorial consequences, the very real danger that the government would use its troops to seize Gaza for Fatah and Abu Mazen (horrendous outcome), and Sharon’s likely wrongheaded strategic thinking in forcefully handing over the Gaza strip to Egypt during the disengagement.

It is also critically important to not simply momentary retake Gaza to topple Hamas and then hand it over to Abu Mazen (here and here is some info on him) and Fatah. It cannot be that Israeli soldiers do the bleeding for Arafat’s own Fatah. This more “moderate” Fatah government will only make it easier for the Israeli left backed by immense world pressure to push Israel into further territorial concessions. In any case, Western leaders who give so much lip service to democracy, should take note that Hamas was elected democratically. Abu Mazen on the other hand, is constitutionally far passed his term of office (not that it matters to me in the least).

Another useful consequence would be to permanently retake the Philadelphia crossing along with the Rafiah crossing. This is in effect the current border between Gaza and Egypt. The original Oslo accords that had Israel pull out of Gaza in the 90s, left Israel firmly in control of the international borders, since it was well known since than that handing them over would only lead to a massively armed terrorist infrastructure.  Giving it up was part of 2005’s Disengagement plan under Sharon. His elusive reasons, he took to his subsequent living grave (he remains in a coma).

At the time, I theorized that Sharon meant to make Gaza slowly integrate with Egypt by giving up the crossing. Crowded Gazans would slowly drift across the border, and likewise lose their artificial “palestinian” identity. At the time, I also theorized it was folly, and that there was no brilliance needed to give land away. Egypt was not being tricked, only given an excuse it needed to control more territory as it now does.

Since Egypt is Gaza’s lifeline to the outside world, it carries huge weight with Hamas and Gaza. Iran may wish to arm Hamas all it wants, but it cannot do so without Egypt’s approval since weapons must cross at its border. Losing control of the crossing has many more ramifications. Any brief perusing of the headlines since the operation began has seen an endless parade of Arab diplomats visiting Gaza – in effect making a comical celebrity “human shield”.

The first was of course, Egypt’s Prime Minister Hesham Kandil, sent by Morsi to show that Egypt was indeed behind Hamas post-Mubarak. Israel was forced into complex diplomatic and military maneuvering to stop its assault (that had just only started) while the PM was there. He was followed by the Tunisian Foreign Minister (another post-Arab spring government), delegates from the Arab league and a whole other collection of dignitaries. These officials are openly meeting with Hamas’ political and military wings, though Israel of course does not wish to accidentally kill a foreign diplomat.

The reason for this circus of visitors who not only give a PR boost to Hamas, but also literally provide human shield cover, is that Egypt controls the Philadelphia crossing. While Israel controlled the passage between Gaza and Egypt, obviously it could control who comes in and out. This is just another simple way Egypt is inhibiting Israel’s ability to defend itself.

Egyptian control over Philadelphia also means that while Israel suffers all the negative public relations ramifications of having a “blockade” around Gaza, in effect it has no such thing. While Egypt has controls at least one border with Gaza, any Israeli blockade is only symbolic. All the Iranian weaponry being fired into Israel is proof enough of this. Egypt’s Morsi, who as much as he would like to is not yet ready for a confrontation with Israel deeply worries about this possibility.

No one is trying harder for a ceasefire (backed by the intrigue-loving Emir of Qatar) than Egypt. A ceasefire now for all the reasons thus shown, would be a defeat for Israel. An incursion might be a victory for Israel that leaves Egypt unable to stop her (Morsi loses face with the Islamists  and perhaps in control of the Philadelphia crossing, one of Egypt’s greatest strategic assets in the region (second only to the Suez Canal).

Continues with praise for the situation in the streets, and the men, young and old, bachelors and family men, calmly going off to war. Israel’s great asset not to be abused.

It is truly inspiring to be in Israel’s streets on days like these. In 2012, with the rampant reality TV culture, money worship (while at the same time condemnation of those who earn it without acting in feature films), the self-indulgent and self-righteous  air-headedness, the rampant hedonism, and modern life’s dilution of values and cynicism prevailing in much of the world, the scenes here are of a time thought long gone.

Everywhere men (not all in the best of shape!) of all ages betray their membership of the reserves by their loosely fitting un-tucked not-to-code sloppy military fatigues as they hustle to and from buses heeding the call to arms. Those (like the author) who eagerly await their own call-up that has not yet come shake their hand and wish them well.

In typical Israeli fashion, they reply as if it is no big deal and that they will be right back, but they fail to hide the feelings in their eyes; worry about their families, hoping that they will in fact come back for them, worry about their family and friends also called up, worry  that they will do right by their brothers-in-arms and be as brave as they will undoubtedly be, and a sparkle of pride, proud of facing the adventure and daunting task ahead, proud of  themselves and of the nation they are part of, and a knowledge that the Rock of Israel will see us through this one as well.

It is difficult to witness this immensely humbling glory clear-eyed, and one is doubtful that ancient Athens’ citizen-soldiers were any more impressive, or even that those of her neighbor who stood at the beginning of Westerndom at Thermopylae against the tyrannical slavery of the East, the few against the very many were any more noble.

This is the asset and weapon Israel counts on. No other nation on earth today has the privilege to do so. A weapon that prefers to not be unsheathed, but unbreakable once it has been, it only requires a skillful warrior to wield it.

Yet again we hoped the government will earn the right to lead these brave men.

There must be long-lasting consequences for firing missiles into Israel. There must be consequences for funding terrorists networks that murder her citizens indiscriminately.  There must be consequences for trying to obtain nuclear weapons while preaching for the annihilation of Israel. If Israel cannot make those exist, she loses her innate historical right to do so herself. The entropy and vacuum of oblivion call for those too weak to hang on.

If the governments of the free world try to deny those consequences upon Israel’s enemies, they are guilty of weakness and hypocrisy and will soon next stand at the cross-hairs.

And if Israel’s government will not call for these consequences, then it most definitely has no right to command the unbreakable citizen army that now stands ready at the gates. Bibi, we await your command.

Nearly two years later, with reservists once again being called up and three young men murdered by terrorists, once again tried to explain the lack of deterrence and the opportunity to turn things around. In July 2014, Murdered Children, Kassam rockets, Israel’s lack of deterrence and the Opportunity,

The piece cites the dysfunctional nature of Israeli executive power.

For weeks after the attacks, Israel’s response was so shameful, I could not bring myself to report on it.

In this piece (about popcorn regulation of all things), I described specifically how it is that Israel’s administrations are paralyzed in the face of existential threats and enemies such as this:

These administrations are paralyzed in terms of a long term plan, or a comprehensive strategy that a country like Israel must have visa vi, the enemy states that surround it and other existential threats it faces. What normally exists is no more than a feuding cabinet barely held together by a Prime Minister constantly worried about his job, that rules “tit for tat” rather than strategically; the cabinet (rather publicly) meets after every development, be it a terrorist act, peace initiative or international pressure campaign to decide on Israel’s very next step, after which they must meet and vote again for any subsequent step. Often immediately after these meetings, the decision made is criticized by some cabinet members who presumably opposed it and were outvoted.

It would have been much happier to not have been so accurate in this case, as the scandal and publicity that followed each cabinet meeting that was supposed to decide Israel’s response went in exactly the above described lines. One minister badmouthing the other, no majority being able to decide on any decisive course of action.

Literally, and without exaggeration, the Israeli response was officially, as the headlines read: “mulling expelling Hamas leaders in the West Bank to Gaza”.

The entire thing was absurd if not comically tragic. Firstly, the headline should alert any reader to the amazing fact that Hamas offices and leaders exist openly in the West Bank, territory largely controlled by Israel. Being so that they exist, openly and in full knowledge of Israel, who claims (along with much of the Western world) that Hamas is murderous terrorist organization (that is banned by Israeli law), one would wonder why they then would not have arrested those leaders and close their offices long ago…. Kidnappings or no kidnappings.

Certainly it would be absurd if the US declared that it would move Al-Qeada offices from Arizona to Montana so that they will be less comfortable in the winter months.

But now having there been these latest murders (not to mention the endless onslaught or rockets from Hamas-controlled Gaza) into much of southern Israel, why would Israel still threaten to move those offices and leaders instead of arresting them even now as part of Netanyahu’s promised “harsh response”?

Worse yet, the “harsh response” did not actually happen at the time.

And finally, as if all this was not absurd enough, do not fall into the trick that the headline was meant to achieve… here we are talking about how pansy (or how harsh as others may see it) moving the Hamas offices from one Arab town to another would be… as if it happened! Israel’s response was not to actually do this incredibly meaningless and absurd gesture, but to merely say it was considering it! A detail that makes it go from absurdly pathetic to intolerably humiliating.

And one may wonder why my article ended with “…I very much fear, that we will do neither [save them nor avenge them].”

We go on to discuss how Netanyahu is aware of Israel’s self imposed inability to impose territorial consequences for attacking her. Thus, the Bibi government is permanently paralyzed.

And here is where the danger and opportunity lies. Netanyahu, not being of course (nowhere near) as incompetent as our last Prime Minister, the corrupt and useless Ehud Olmert, has so far refrained from such a ground operation in Gaza. About two years back, he called one such operation off in an previous hail of rockets from Gaza at the last moment. It is easy to follow the popular cries to strike at Gaza (as Olmert did twice), but then difficult to achieve any tangible goal, not to mention not come out politically destroyed, as the population notices the lack of direction objective, along with the all too unavoidable casualties.

Even to my surprise, I treated these subjects rather thoroughly (and well if I be permitted), in my 2012 article The “Danger” of Peace. Its words ring as true today as they did then, though they are easier to see today, and it remains I believe a correct roadmap that needs to be considered before any operation in Gaza for anyone interested. Not having heeded the advice, nor done much of anything other than sign a truce with Hamas, Netanyahu suffered greatly politically in the subsequent election, where he had hoped to finally establish a strong ruling right-leaning coalition. Instead, he barely held on.   However, here, I will jump ahead to the opportunity also mentioned and ignored then.

The problem is further explained:

As was mentioned above, and in the previous articles quoted, Israel’s issue with Gaza is not knowing what endgame to play for. When Israel held Gaza, it was “occupying” it. When it withdrew from it, it was still occupying it because there were adjacent Jewish areas in the now destroyed “Gush Katif”. When it evacuated Gush Katif and forcefully removed 10,000 Jews (mostly families) from gush Katif, enlarging Arab Gaza, it then was “siegeing” it.

And if it enters Gaza militarily, it is difficult to imagine it will stay. The act of invading and retreating, though of course is somewhat painful to Hamas, leaves Israel looking like it achieved nothing, and at the great cost of soldiers’ lives. Hamas laughs last, ready to regroup and start launching missiles yet again. Or worse, Fatah takes over after the fact, making us look like Abu Mazen’s foot soldiers conquering Gaza for him.

But in this case, the political objectives is so clear! Netanyahu must heed this advice… and lead Israel into one of the rare victories it has had in decades.

A suggestion. Undo the shameful Disengagement. Re-establish Gush Katif. A few excerpts.

And the final plea:

Three days later, seeing Israel’s weak PR attempts and the will to victory crumbling, I tried again. July 12 2014, The Tragedy of Israel’s PR Campaign.

This one was mostly aimed at the endless and exhausting “explanation” Israel undertakes rather than actions.

But for a briefer note, a response is needed to the flood of ridiculous posts…all over my social networks, and all over cyberspace. Constantly, Israeli officials, United With Israel types, and amateur independent Israel supporters with good intentions, barrage the world media with tragically ironic or simply absurd statements….

“No country would tolerate hundreds of missiles…” um right no country would… except Israel who does.

“Israel has the right to defend itself” we keep screaming into the nothing, while we then refuse to defend ourselves.

this isn’t debate club, this is a real war… and we need to really win it or we will really lose it.

Completely confusing to me are those constantly badmouthing our enemies… “look how savage they are.. look how mean… look how they faked these images, don’t believe them!”. um… who cares?! ok they are really mean… some of them Photoshop images… so? Do we expect the world to then say “ok… go ahead and murder every Arab in Gaza and the West Bank, we had no idea they were photoshoping images to make Israel look bad!”?

Or for someone who supports a palestinian state to suddenly be convinced to not support it because some Arab somewhere lied about an image of arabs being bombed… it’s ridiculous.. the point is that the air force is bombing them.. and they would like it to stop so they post pictures, true ones, fake ones… whatever…if anything these posts (ours) strengthen the arab cause.

What if a Jew spread a fake picture of an Arab killing an old lady? Has Israel lost it’s right to exist or to defend itself because of it?

we are not making any real points that lead to any conclusion supporting anything on our side.. (for those, read my blog), we are just whining pathetically. Jewish victim mentality at its best.
The strangest to me are the ones (posts) competing with the Arab world for suffering. These posters are having a terrible time because our F-15’s bombing Gaza are much more effective than the flying tin cans that Hamas is sending our way…

We discussed the Israeli government’s never ending ghetto mentality, and the fallacy of hiding behind defensive technologies, fences and walls.

Hamas did not become our enemy two weeks ago when it started shelling us with qassams in the most recent occurrence. The US does not wait for al-Qaeda to be able to bomb Los Angeles to go after it. Hamas is our stated enemy (since its inception in 88 and its declaration of war on Israel) regardless of the qassams, at the moment this is the best they can do…together with kidnappings, murder and suicide bombers. I am sure if we continue to give them time and do nothing but complain about our right to defend ourselves, they will improve.

The iron dome itself is a sign of our ghetto mentality. No country on earth is protected from neither ballistic missiles nor small rockets to the degree Israel is. For small rockets, I’d say no other country is protected at all. If Mexico started shooting ketushas and kassams into the US, they would all land.

The protection is deterrence. If a country starts shelling its neighbor, one can expect the aggrieved neighbor to send in its army in retaliation (especially when it is the stronger party militarily). Not us….

We will spend billions to intercept the $10 flying tin cans with $100,000 high tech missiles (the price has been coming down)… our iron dome alone is enough to bankrupt us with Qatari oil money buying the $10 flying tin cans. Finally realizing this, the iron dome no longer intercepts kassams unless the system calculates they will land on urban areas… that way saving some money when they harmlessly land on open fields.

But the whole thing is part of our endless refusal to do anything on the offense… we just keep hiding behind fences, barbed wire, thermal cameras, iron dome… we keep withdrawing from land and building more and more walls on the smaller and smaller land we have left…. meanwhile we continue to scream about how mean our enemies are and how much a right to defend ourselves we have…

Once again hoped against all odds that we would defend ourselves rather than explain our right to do so, and order our men to victory, lest the dangers to our families continue to grow ever bigger.

I don’t want a Prime Minister that makes everyone proud by explaining to CNN that Israel, like any other country, has a right to defend itself. Call me crazy, but I’d like a Prime Minister that has Israel defend itself when attacked.

After you do so, and achieve the word that Israelis have forgotten exists, a word they used to know so well; Victory….after that it is tautological, de jure, and irrelevant that you had a right, like all other countries, to defend yourself. You just did.

Ten days later as Israel considered an illegal ceasefire with its archenemy terrorist organization Hamas, I addressed some of the PR issues which Israel tends to unwisely believe impede its potential for victory.

Here I explain that the mainstream world view is much more in agreement with Israeli policy than we tend to believe. It is in fact, the anti-Israel Israeli policy that is the main problem.

Self interest and incentive systems… as usual. The only thing that protesters love to do more than protest, is see the fruits of their labors. It is an immense feeling of empowerment for regular people to see the powerful, be they large multinational corporations, politicians or whole countries, break and succumb to their demands. Much like Israel invites terrorism by rewarding it as a successful tactic, it invites world condemnation by bending to its will.

The reason there is not the same level of protests in European capitals to say… Bashar Assad’s actions in Syria is because one cannot even imagine that Assad would give a good damn about some protesters complaining in any western city. For perhaps an even clearer example, take Russia’s Putin’s recent actions… from the war in Chechnya to the invasion of little Georgia to the seizing of Ukrainian territory, where are the mass protests?

Not too visible because no one can imagine Putin caring. People do not like to waste their time, and they don’t like to be on the losing side. They love however, the feeling of having seen the seemingly powerful bend to their will. And therein lies the key, they must only be seemingly powerful for if they truly were, there would be little need in kneeling.

Whether it’s the large corporation, trembling at the sight of bad press, boycotts, and complaints to the Better Business Bureau or Israel who is inordinately sensitive and dependent on world opinion, the protesters protest where it works. At least the masses do; true believers and fanatics will struggle against any odds… alone and for years if need be, but most people are neither. They are just people.

It is no coincidence that Israel, having chosen to be sensitive to world opinion, is so bad at ever having any of it be positive. If you want to be smacked around, you will be. Ironically, for Israel to regain a measure of world standing, it must stop caring about it; and be a bit like most other people in the world… caring about their own self interests.

It continues and concludes:

So in short, a lesson for Israel before this latest conflict is over…. the reason there are so many protests against you is because they work… you break at their invisible assault of nothing; in the same way that there is terrorism from your enemies (who would not get their desired results merely be peaceful protesting)… you break before it.

As should have been learned already, no amount of appeasement to either terrorism nor world opinion/protesters leads to the actual appeasement (satisfaction) of either, rather it fuels both their ever growing appetite that will starve only once we are no more.

Let us pray, we ever learn, less screaming “anti-Semitism” at everyone while we surrender to its demands (our piecemeal destruction), and instead turn it into an unprofitable endeavor.

A few days later I followed up with Operation Protective Edge, Tactics and Strategy which is an interesting article regarding tactics and strategy in the then ongoing conflict, Operation Protective Edge. It also discusses the Obama administration’s efforts to pressure Israel into defeat.

Less than a month later, the opportunity having yet again been wasted and the operation cut short, I followed up with one of my most comprehensive articles on Gaza, Gaza – The Big Picture and What Israel Should Do (have done)

The piece mocks Israel’s policy of “Not tolerating” rockets, the “war against the tunnels”, the danger in multiple rounds of fighting, and the danger to Israel due to its refusal to capture territory from her enemies.

The article goes into details about the rockets, the tunnels, and why an air campaign alone will not yield results for Israel. Though it cannot alone achieve victory it does produce a lot of collateral damage which further wears away at international support for Israel.

Not having been treated here previously, will quote the article, which is well worth reading complete, regarding the economics of the repeated bouts of fighting.

How can Hamas improve after this round of fighting if it does not get knocked out? Most importantly Hamas has seen that the tunnels are a great success and its efforts there will be redoubled. Intercity, Intracity, short, long, deep, large and small – all sorts of tunnels will be built. Smuggling tunnels, defensive tunnel networks more networked, more fortified, deeper and stronger, and of course longer offensive tunnels into Israel. All Hamas has to do we have taught it, is make the tunnels into Israel longer.

Since the IDF refuses to occupy the urban centers even temporarily, longer tunnels will be a great success.

Now any critical reader might say… well sure but certainly the economic costs on Gaza these adventures cost will deter them from wanting a next round.

Yes so we are told over and over. Remember the $500 million dollars of damage Israel boasted about not 2 years ago in Operation Pillar of Defense. Hamas does not seem very deterred to me.

This economic argument in truth, is actually reversed. It is Israel that suffers economically form these bouts of fighting in Gaza. The call-up of reserves, the halt of tourism (currently the high tourist summer season in Israel took a huge blow due to the conflict), economic devastation in the southern region due to rocket fire and to a lesser degree country-wide.

Perhaps most importantly, the amount of munitions and taxpayer money used on the operation itself, mostly in the form of air-to ground missiles, and in the expensive Iron Dome missiles Israel uses to intercept the cheap homemade Qassam rockets being fired at her is truly massive. These does not “stimulate” the economy in any shape or form, because like Obama’s failed stimulus programs, they are a net drain on the economy, fueled by wealth seized from the citizens in taxes, government debt and/or inflation, and giving no tangible benefit in return (a broken building in Gaza is no service of any kind to any Israeli). If they did, Israel should just build and blow up missiles in sealed warehouses for economic growth.

Meanwhile, the complete opposite is true in Gaza. The devastation that these operations have left in Gaza is truly remarkable; partly due to the nature of war despite Israel’s best efforts, and partly intentional as a “deterrent”. Amazingly, they serve not only as great PR fodder for Israel’s detractors, but also the base of an amazing subsequent economic Hamas and terror boom.

The idea is that if buildings were used to house Hamas fighters, rocket launchers or weapons caches, Israel destroying them will cause the civilian population to not cooperate a second time. This not only ignores the more important cultural and emotional feelings involved in this matter; the “pride” many Gazans feel when little Gaza and small Hamas stand up to the might of the IDF when whole Arab states mobilizing all their vast resources simultaneously could not defeat her in battle.

But putting those more complex issues aside, the deterrence in pure economic terms is a sham. If your house was destroyed in the service of Hamas, you can be sure you will be more than well compensated by Hamas and its sponsors, and whether it was destroyed in the service of Hamas, or without any relation to it, you can in either case expect a great load of help from the international NGOs.

After each round of fighting, international humanitarian organizations descend on Gaza with endless millions of dollars for reconstruction. Much of these is diverted into Hamas hands, and the rest causes a building boom in Gaza. Secondly, the more open and direct sponsors of Hamas such as Iran, Qatar, Turkey and Syria in better days, unleash a wealth of funds directly into the hands of Hamas. Either for a job well done and/or to improve for a better job the next time around. Islamic charities across the world also increase dramatically their support for all sorts of causes in Gaza, from good to bad, after each round of conflict.

The combination of these massive sources of funds in tiny Gaza is nothing short of an economic boom, albeit a very corrupt one, where Hamas leaders and cronies become millionaires. These funds not only fuel the rebuilding and expansion of the civilian infrastructure, but also the terror infrastructure and re-arming of hamas.

This is why the Israeli pubic and apparently Israeli leaders are left dumbfounded at the speed at which Hamas rearms and extends is capabilities after what everyone was told was a “devastating blow”.

And unlike the case of false stimulus by government spending, which has to use either the confiscated wealth already in the population, or create it by inflating the currency, the Gaza stimulus is a real one, fueled by funds that come from outside of Gaza and thus a real net gain.

Ironically, Israel would slightly benefit economically from trade in this boom, due to the large import of cement and other materials that follow, but since Israel did not defeat Hamas, it maintains its limited sanctions on the border, and so much of these goods are imported legally or illegally (the smuggling tunnels) through the Egyptian border.

In essence Israel’s limited incursions and attacks on Hamas held Gaza, do nothing but maintain and fuel an economy and way of life dependent on further conflict.

Also of note is the false narrative the Israeli public is constantly sold, regarding territorial concessions:

The public, as usual, was told and convinced that if we just remove the disputed Gush Katif Jewish settlements, and leave an entirely and unarguably Jewish-free Gaza Strip, there would no longer be any reason for the Arabs to continue firing. It was the presence of Jews in their midst, that insulted them, and so the beautiful communities of Gush Katif had to go.

Moreso, if the Arabs continued their terrorism and their attacks after the withdrawal, then Israel would have the full right and international support to exact a crushing blow (a thing never quite defined). In either case, the rocket fire should cease.

I wonder when Israel will have the “full right and international support to exact a ‘crushing blow’”?

This piece includes a more modest version of the political consequence, if better ones won’t be implemented. It concludes with myself yet again fearing for our citizen soldiers, who time after time are called upon to face danger and death seeking victory, only for the political echelon to toss it away once again.

The objective at hand is simple, there is an enemy, a relatively weak one at that, who must be vanquished; Israel has forgotten that wars are ended by someone winning them. Israel’s current path is exactly the opposite of this straightforward and simple strategy, expensive, deadly, massive and useless air campaigns, toleration of endless shelling of her cities… abuse of the army and reservists’ lives by sending them into mortal danger with absurd limitations on defeating the enemy… this must stop or Israel faces a very bleak future indeed.

In another article, I made the case for territorial consequences, and the re-establishment of Gush Katif, this would be amazing, but with the low expectations that exist from today’s Israeli political scene, this modest plan would be great as well. While Israel and the world keep arguing in circles, Hamas is not confused, it keeps fighting, knowing with determination one day it can win…. well it is confused only in one aspect, disbelief at Israel’s refusal to win.

I don’t disregard our enemies’ courage, if our leaders acted with one tenth of theirs the war would have been soon over with a tenth the casualties on both sides…. but now I beg the Israeli leadership, Bennett, Lieberman, Saar, Bibi, Shamir, Yaalon, and the rest who are brave and patriots, please let the IDF, bursting with heroes, loose on our enemies who would have us massacred and enslaved; let us defeat them, for we would only have them unarmed, and free to live their lives, as long as they are not based on ending ours.

Please I beg of you, there is only so much defeat our warriors can take, while still remaining unconquerable.

In the 2019 article cited early on herein, we discussed the two main problems with Israel’s foreign policy.

The world is not against us as much as we think they are. The world, in a great overwhelming fashion, agrees with us. And that is our problem.
There are two overarching issues hurting Israeli foreign policy in its aim to achieve national security. First, the idea that the world is against us, without noting what we ourselves declare, and secondly, our unwillingness to impose consequences, specifically territorial consequences on our enemies, as a result of their actions.

Regarding the different self-determined status of Israeli territory and our flawed perceptions about them:

Thankfully the state of Israel was not established by a bureaucratic vote in the corrupt halls of the UN, but it was established in a heroic war of independence, defense, survival and liberation of our ancient homeland. And why is it that those iconic cities are unquestionably Israel today? If they too were conquered and “occupied”?

To be frank, those uncontroversial  lands have a much more serious illegitimacy problem than the so called occupied territories of today, Judea and Samaria (and the Golan Heights). Most of the Arabs of the lands seized by the IDF in the 1949 war of independence were evicted or fled from their homes and were not allowed back. Jewish families to this day live in some of those homes… ironically in the more leftist parts of Israel such as Tel-Aviv-Yaffo, where left leaning Israelis watch tv news in a home whose deed is held by an Arab refugee living in Syria or Lebanon, and shout obscenities at the Jewish “settlers” who live in Judea and Samaria. I will agree with them about Israeli sovereignty all day long, but I know how to respect private property.

These settlers on the other hand, though demonized by the media at home and abroad, are not guilty of anything more than being Jewish. The post 1967 Six Day war environment had no such evictions and land seizures, and Jewish families living in these lands, are simple law abiding citizens who have to buy or rent their homes and pay taxes. They live in an area of disputed jurisdiction, out of patriotism and values, but do not live in a home they stole from an Arab but one they built and paid for on their own. Only in modern Israel, can the fact that they are Jews, turn them into the demonized “settlers”, since obviously ancient Judea and Samaria is to be a Juden free, ethnically cleansed land we are told by the forces of political correctness, only for the Arab muslim who does not tolerate Jewish residents his midst. Europe, Australia, Canada and the USA must be diverse.. palestine is to be 100% muslim arab kapish!

But that aside… then why do we here so much about the evil settler who lives in a home he legally purchased or rents, and Judea as the occupied West Bank (or worse, palestine) and nothing of Beer Sheba and Ramle and Yaffo (Jaffa) and Ashkelon and all the rest? No one today in Israel can even tell when they pass this imaginary “partition line” to the territories conquered in the 1949 war. The answer is simple. Israel says they are Israel. And the world agrees.

And don’t think there wasn’t pushback. There was more, relative to Israel’s position at the time and the Cold War politics that made things much more difficult than today.

President Truman sent a note to Ben Gurion stating that the US was “seriously disturbed” with the “excessive Israeli claims to further territory within Palestine” and its “rejection of the basic principles of the Resolution set forth by the GA on 11 December 1948”. Plenty of serious warnings followed. Ben Gurion and the government replied that Israel was not established by the UN resolution but by her victorious war of defense. The enemy’s refugee population was of its own making. The land was Israel, and that was that (boy I’ll take THAT kind of Labor politican, man what happened to them?).

Israel says the territories of Judea and Samaria, the West Bank, are NOT Israel… and the world agrees.

You have to look pretty far and wide to find someone who disagrees… Iran, Hamas, ISIS .. perhaps. From Jordan to Egypt to Saudi Arabia… to Europe to the USA… to yes Israel… all agree, Tel-Aviv is Israel and the west bank should be a palestinian state, and the rest is Israel. Yet if anyone but us mentions this opinion, we scream out “Anti-Semites!” and “the world is against us!” at the top of our lungs.

And within the Israeli political system, from Meretz (the extreme left) to Likud (supposedly the “Right”), all agree as well. The Israeli people believe they are moving to the right, but they are voting for identical platforms, and then are surprised when nothing changes.

Yes, there is a different “tone”. Meretz would LOVE to give Israel away to her enemies, and Bibi (Netanyahu) I am supposed to believe, only SAYS he would, but doesn’t really want to. And I believe that is likely the case, but it makes for horrible foreign policy, just makes us and Bibi come out like liars.

Israel’s policy is the problem for Israel, and not the fact that most of the world agrees with it.

An example of how this policy goes.

Question:

“Hey, so when are you going to stop occupying palestine?”

“eh.. you know we are making the desert bloom!”

“right, that’s nice, so .. Palestine?

“You know in the earthquake in Haiti we went to help first! And we develop vaccines, and in every national catastrophe around the world we are always (uninvited) pushing to go help where we are not wanted nor needed”.

“Yes, I see that, very praiseworthy, so when you don’t occupy palestine I am sure people will think that’s really nice, when you going to leave?”

“But the terrorism! Terrorists are bad, and they blow up. very bad people. and we make vaccines”

“Very good… yes we all think terrorism is bad, so maybe if you stop occupying palestine then certain people will not want to blow up buses?”

“Yes but vaccines. and desert bloom. and high tech start up nation. and of course we believe in a palestinian state and their nationhood, but terrorism. we are agaisnt terrorism, so we need a peace partner, and then we can have peace process. and we are willing to painful compromise. and also their children throw kites with fires at us!”

“Yes, I saw. the children facing the F-15s and the Merkava tanks were lighting kites on fire to fight you. Quite impressive if you ask me. Maybe you should stop occupying palestine… but thanks for the vaccine.”

Netanyahu of Menachem Begin’s Likud stood in the UN and announced that not only would he recognize a palestinian state, but that he would be the first in before any other nation to do so! He spoke (as only he can!) about our ancient connection to our biblical lands, about the ancient signet ring found in Judea of course with the name “Netanyahu” inscribed on it. A seal dating to 2,700 years ago from the time of the Judean King Hezekiah. He speaks about our rights to our land, speaks about our rights to defend ourselves and our lands (quite convincingly I must say), and then tells you he will give them away to our enemies, that they may stop blowing us up.

I like Bibi personally, and along with many of us have waited patiently for him to actually be the leader of the right that the left always accuses him to be. I have never voted for Likud of course, I am a patriot, a right wing conservative, and a believer in freedom (known to commis as capitalism) so have no business voting Likud, but have always liked and respected him, and hoped that one day he could one day join us.

It continues:

Urging for a fundamental political change, coming from the electorate, I continued:

The problem is that while it may be imperceptibly moving slightly right economically (and I do mean imperceptive… the Knesset is 120 socialists that don’t quite agree on how much land we should give away to the Arabs), there is no movement right on security matters. As I have been endlessly explaining now for years, the policies of all the major parties are identical.

Israel should be given away for peace. There are slight differences in tone… how much land, how fast… to who… but certainly, the Prime Minister’s job is to make “painful compromises”  for peace. Painful compromises is code for giving away land. Modern Israeli culture does not value land. There is a perception that this is an outdated value of ancient empires and colonial imperialists who wish to see large swaths of a map painted a certain color. We are taught as a premise that this is so bad that it must follow that land is actually of no value.

…

For the Arabs… it is quite different, this is a conflict over land. Jews lived in Arab and muslim lands for the 2000 years we lived in European Christian lands (though they started being muslim lands much later.. so let’s call it 1200 years in muslim lands for argument’s sake). They lived often well enough, sometimes not at all, much like in Christendom.. depending on circumstances and the current rulers and mob trends. But they survived. Until recently, Christians lived all over the middle east as well.

It’s not that the arabs cannot accept Jews necessarily in these lands as a minority of course, but they cannot accept Jewish sovereignty over them. The Israeli soldier with the Uzi (or Tabor nowadays)… it’s the fact that they live here in peace at our mercy, rather than us at theirs. It all comes back to jurisdiction, to power, rule, over land. The arabs want our land.

they cannot conquer it (they tried, and they lose more land each time). But they can get it from the left. Terrorism, and the promise to stop terrorism, has worked in obtaining land, whereas all out war has failed them (for now). 

This in turn leads to an idea explained earlier in my 2013 2013 Israeli Legislative Elections Voter Guide

In great part because of this fact, Israel is famous for acting superbly when it no longer has a choice. When the Arab world has pushed Israel to the brink, when it has set out to destroy it military, and there are no longer any decisions for the government to make, the only decision left being to  let the IDF fight without restraint to save the nation, the results have been disastrous for the Arab world. When forced to fight, Israel has fought and won time and again. Her enemies have learned their lessons, if giving Israel no choice but victory forces it to obtain it, then all they must do is give Israel plenty of choices.

They now know to push, but not to the wall. As long as Israel has choices other than victory, it will take them. Just as all out war unites the country in defiance of the enemy, the absence of it polarizes it, divides it and paralyzes its dysfunctional government. Religious against secular, Zionist against non-Zionists, communists against free market supporters, the country is weakened by internal strife. Israel’s enemies now know to give Israel no peace and no rest, but to not push against the wall either… terrorism and international pressure do the work that their armies could not achieve.

Returning to our 2019 article, this was refined further:

When a Prime Minister of Israel declares loud and clear… that the tiny single Jewish state on the phase of the earth, that cannot be seen on a world map… will not go backwards. Not one inch backwards. Not now, not ever. When he can declare to the Arab world, that they have two choices… to accept, in either a warm peace of commerce and regional relations or a cold peace of calm and non violence; up to them, the existence of the tiny Jewish state, then small it shall remain, OR to not accept it, and then by Gd it will only grow.

When the leader of Israel can declare that to her enemies… that the game is up… that no longer is land awarded for the murder of Jews, that the political and violent tit for tat is over, and that assaults on her or her people will result in the unleashing of the IDF to liberate further territories of ancient Judea and Israel… then ironically, there just might be peace, and Israel will have to remain quite small. But as long as the game is the opposite, and that the game is land for peace… well the Arabs must maintain the absence of peace, so that they can keep getting land.

The Situation Now

Hopefully the Hamas led massacre on October 7th pushed Israel too far. I hope they miscalculated on this supposedly right-wing government unleashes the IDF to victory.

Upon being called up I quickly posted the following:

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1710678527534580135

As the October 7th attack and massacre by Hamas will be understood more as an intelligence failure (as I realized immediately that Sat in my post above) rather than a military one (as the heroics and professionalism of arriving security forces defeated a large and well planned invasion against all odds, and that largely without air or artillery support), the truth is that it is more of a statesmanship failure.

For years I have noted Israel’s ability to be at peace with people that can be at war with you. We guard the Gaza and northern Lebanon border with forces that ought to be ready for attack daily. They are very large compared to a border at peace and not large enough for a border at war, as was seen. War like Tango must involve two. Parties, even weaker ones, will be thrilled to be at war with you if it is one-way, and brings upon no (territorial) consequence. The wars are over land. The price of defeat in war must be land. This ironically, will bring more peace than all the ill-designed peace initiatives of surrender and capitulation.

After the surprise attack during the Yom Kippur War, Israel eventually negotiated a treaty with Egypt that precluded its ability to surprise attack again. Its main forces are not allowed in Sinai. Likewise with Syria, without treaty, the IDF no longer tolerated a large buildup of enemy troops. If you want peace, you can have peace, if you want war, take war. We applied this with our state neighbors but not with Hamas and Hezbollah, thus exposing our Achilles heel. The situation in either border, cannot return to the same status. Certainly the residents along the border will not tolerate it.

As we speak, Hamas resistance north of Gaza city is collapsing. The city itself is being surrounded. Even more importantly, hopefully territorial and political consequences will follow. The very bare minimum is seizing northern Gaza, and evacuating the Arab population (largely already evacuated) southwards.

Even better is the re-establishment of Gush Katif in the remaining parts, and better yet is the recapture of the entire strip, with the population welcome to migrate to their brethren across the Egyptian border to Sinai. There are many ways Israel can achieve this if it sets out to. One of them is not to openly request el-Sisi’s permission to do so, which he of course cannot and will not give.

Negotiations regarding the hostages should exist only in the negative. Intelligence can establish contacts with local clans and commanders who are housing the hostages in various places. If the fact that the IDF is coming is made clear, that all of the strip will be retaken, then the leverage is vast. The Merkavas will be at your door tomorrow morning or the next, they can be told. If the hostages are alive, you and your men will do ok. If they are not, incredible fury will be unleashed upon all of you.

The negotiation is not to be with Hamas leadership, in their multi-million dollar estates in Dubai, but with local commanders who will face the reality of the IDF at their door. Only that way, is there a good chance for many hostages to be saved. The enemy must believe we are coming, and that the hostages are not a shield which will stop us.

The exception to that I have held since day 1 of this war, is that it is seriously and immediately proposed (and not after any type of formal and dragged out negotiations), that our women and children for example, will be released in exchange for all Arab women held in Israeli prisons, then that should be quickly accepted.

It is upon our head that we let the animal mob take our women and children, they are held in dungeons of hard-to-imagine terror and we should bring them back home. Hamas will of course only formally agree to releasing all the hostages in exchange of something resembling a truce or ceasefire. It does not want to give up its human shields. So it may accept something like this only if it believes retaining the adult male hostages give it an equal protection (which it does not).

Under no circumstance should Israel succumb to further ceasefires or negotiations. Biden’s pretense in supporting Israel is only out of desperation to get a win. He loses in Afghanistan, loses in Ukraine, loses in the economy and loses everywhere. The Democratic party badly wants a win somewhere.

They need Israel and not the other way around. Now that they are engaged and the photo-op moments of support passed, the Democrat White House actively works against Israel’s interests. They will work hard at pressing for PA rule over Gaza and a palestinian state. They will likewise press for a ceasefire that prevents the IDF from once again achieving victory.

The modern West and its anti-western values takes no vacations, and despite Russia’s reliance on Iran during its hard-fought war, I hope it is able to see that Hamas’ interests and “palestinian” interests in general are pro-modern-west and anti-old-west ie anti-Russian.

Prigozhin, had he lived, may have been able to impress that upon many of his compatriots.

Hassan Nasrallah is expected to speak today. I will post elsewhere about that. (Update: did so here

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1720408421017481362 )

His words will be important in determining how this goes from here. Hopefully, despite Iranian pressure, he does not make his bed with the murderous mob that was so heroic against unarmed families, women and babies, and that now trembles at the advance of the IDF.