Israel Iran War - Operation Rising Lion
The Number of Iranian Launchers is the Game, Not of Missiles
Article Version of this June 14 piece and its updates.
https://x.com/ZimermanErik/status/1933975680813068480
Everyone thinks massive Iranian strike incoming tonight... I wouldn't be too sure.
As we have discussed earlier, the fall of the Assad regime, extended the reach of the IAF by 700 or 800 kms eastwards. While the advanced fighters had no problem defying the Syrian anti-air network, big bulky refueling planes did.
This meant that Israeli jets could hit Iran (as they did a few months ago), but really at the edge of their range. The opening of the Syrian airspace after the fall of Assad significantly extended this range. This was a game changer.
Anyway I have discussed the Iranian paper tiger for many years. The slower and expensive long range drones in their arsenal are easy prey for Israel's defenses. Only a quite a massive ballistic missile barrage is a threat.
After first launching around 100 drones that failed to even get noticed, Iran made a great effort to launch over 100 ballistic missiles last night. A couple got through, and hit urban civilian areas.
The regime is at a loss of what to do. If they simply tonight send 60, and tomorrow 30, and after a few more days pretty much none... that isn't much of a plan. The impotence is plain to see.
They cannot sustain the pace of around 100 ballistic missiles a day. Because of launcher limitations firstly, and even long range missile stocks secondly (both of which are being diminished by the hour courtesy of Israel's forces).
They are likely to either attempt a hail-mary to see if they can intimidate Israel to halt its campaign; this would mean hundreds of drones and 100 to 200 ballistic missiles on the same night in an attempt to overwhelm the anti-air network...
or more likely not to much at all. They can resort to threats, negotiations and manipulations to somehow try to let go of the tiger's tail. People may not realize that the regime does not have many good options and they are likely quite unsure of how to proceed.
Unlike a guerilla-type force such as Hezbollah or an urban terrorist force like hamas, we are not talking about thousands of short range small rockets, drones and missiles. The distances here are significant and so only large, expensive and advanced weapons can even reach Israel.
So while dug in forces, and those launching small rockets cannot typically be defeated from the air (a point I hark on for years!), and usually their return fire cannot be stopped by air power alone, Iranian capabilities in respect to Israel are another story.
This is a regime which fancies itself, and more importantly tells its domestic population that it is a, regional power. It is industrialized and possesses complex if not advanced weaponry. This is the kind of force, that indeed can be stymied from the air. As long as Israel presses its advantage, perseveres and sustains its campaign, return fire from Iran will diminish quite rapidly.
The number of capable launchers (and their associated manpower) alone, mobile and otherwise, will seriously limit what Iran can do on any given day. And the more launchers are used, the more likely they are to be detected and destroyed.
Stocks as well, are in the few thousand (of long range), as opposed to hundreds of thousands for example when speaking of Hezbollah's and hamas' previously touted shorter range stocks.
One of Iran's few plays is an attempt at intimidation of the population. I can inform them that the part of the population that would be intimidated, was already pre-emptively intimidated long ago and dead on Israel's defeat, especially if an Israeli victory means a Bibi Netanyahu victory. That segment of the population cannot be any more "anti" and any more intimidated. And the remaining part, will not be intimidated.
The regime wants nothing more then to figure out how it can spin this situation so that its own citizens, will still fear it and believe that Iran does not wipe out Israel on a daily basis, due to its kindness, restraint, and commitment to peace goodwill among men. Of course, a mere command from Khomeni and the button would be pressed; the zionist entity no more. But it will give us just one more chance.
So, let us see what the night brings.
Tomorrow... well the Sha's family is certainly viewing tomorrow with great interest. Of more significance will be the thoughts and actions of the Kurds in the North West. Perhaps for once Israel will change its shameful, pathetic and unsuccessful policy of appeasing the Turkey at any cost (the allure of a Muslim country tolerating Israel), and back a friendly and honorable Kurdistan instead.
First Update:
And the beginning answers to my questions...
In two posts. much as we expected so far.
1. A few mins ago heading towards Haifa:
https://x.com/EitanZimerman/status/1933983268598079699
2. Attempting to "let go of the tiger's tail".
https://x.com/Osint613/status/1933977010621272498?s=19
Second Update after Second Night of War:
The second night of the Israel Iran war looked as we thought likely (and hoped).
Iranian volleys the first night were of around 100 ballistic missiles (not drones). The second night reports indicate up to 75.
The name of the game was always the launchers (and not the missiles).
Quoting my first night's post:
"The regime is at a loss of what to do. If they simply tonight send 60, and tomorrow 30, and after a few more days pretty much none... that isn't much of a plan. The impotence is plain to see."
So so far they were able to neither think outside the box nor figure out how to let safely release the tiger's tail. The second night, which should have show an increased intensity of attack (as most everyone seemed to have expected (we knew better of course), as Iran was surprised on the first day, instead slackened.
A third night of this decrease, and many more people other than me would notice. The regime must have been trying to figure out what to do. So far, our expectation held.
This third night will really be telling. If the number of ballistic missiles, especially the simultaneous volley number (volleys are needed to overwhelm air defense), then Iran's chance of intimidating Israel's leadership and population into a premature cessation of the campaign is greatly diminished.
Yes there has been damage and even deaths in Israel, but as I wrote after the first night, it is very different if it was sustainable or a maximum effort.
The Iranians have already made fairly clear that they can't launch volleys during the day. Israel's increasing air superiority over western Iran does not allow the launchers to dare operate in the daytime.
Drones, easily intercepted, of course.. those are easily and quickly launched, but the ballistic missiles are something else. The launchers are large and prep time is significant. Israel meanwhile has continued to hunt them down in the day while improving its ability to find & strike them at night as well.
To try to show that the daylight hours are not completely safe in Israel, and out of Iran's reach, the regime ordered an ineffective assault earlier today. These were likely largely drones, and of little use.
As the night continues, thus far, we haven't seen much this third night. Perhaps in the ballpark of 30 ballistic missiles in total. Here is exclusive primary source footage (started filming before the sirens even started, and the first interceptor launched) from Jerusalem at a smaller volley of incoming Iranian missiles.
Iran's shot was really on the second night. A massive effort could have had a chance of intimidating the Israeli public, at least potentially.
It was found wanting, and my expectation is that if the third night turns out to be significant smaller then folks will finally notice the pattern. Two nights of strikes and what dominates coverage are the images of damage... there is little focus on the numbers at play here.
But weather 100 missiles launched hit 1 building and 50 manage by chance to hit 2 buildings later, the strategic difference is the halved number of missiles launched rather than the doubling of the casualties (unless it is due to a 4x decrease in interception rate & not chance).
Three nights and folks will notice. Then Israel will hopefully realize that it may persevere and succeed as the incoming barrages will only continue to diminish.
The longer term game can only be changed by Iran by changing its very limited capabilities. That's a whole other ballgame, attrition, strategic & economic calculations. To this end, Israel must either ensure that each day the par grows to her benefit and not against (and must hit economic, infrastructure and production related targets to do so), or execute a quick end of the fighting on its terms.
But first thing is simply a matter of protecting its civilian population so that it may continue the campaign through to success.
Civilian urban dwellers across Iran do not have to race for cover all night, it is clear to them (even if not to the media), that Israel isn't indiscriminately bombing cities but striking specific sites. Iran, barely capable of hitting anything at all, is simply launching missile volleys as large as possible at Israel hoping specifically that some get through and hit any target, civilian or otherwise. The idea is here being to not to try to defeat the opposing army but rather have a strong deterrence by having a gun pointing at the public.
A strategy to a large extent that dominated Hezbollah's military spending (vast majority of weaponry meant to be lobbed at cities in general and not fight the opposing troops on the ground), which we discussed (don't have time to find the link at the moment) a few times at least, and ultimately failed in our latest round.
Whether the media admits and reports this or not, it is what this war hinges on. Iran's deterrence is its ability to terrorize the population in general, not to defeat the IDF in any way.
Israelis tonight are asking themselves how many nights can they spend in shelters? How long can they really hold out like this... while I am looking at the number of ballistic missiles Iran is launching per night, and per volley...
Post 3rd Night Update:
Indeed, we have confirmation. Even according to Grok 3. Iran is losing. Reporting is on damage, strikes & deaths, but the volleys are diminishing.
Fourth night could bring us clarity to the trend.
IDF is rapidly eliminating the launchers. You saw it here first (on day 1), the name of the game were the launchers (and their troops).
So far pretty quiet. The night started with Iranian state media reporting that Iran was
preparing for the "largest and most intense missile attack in history" (on Israeli soil), which I believe is Persian for "we are almost out of launchers & are getting beaten, please by afraid and stop".
They may switch to more frequent and smaller volleys. We shall see.