Russia Ukraine War Update - The Cauldrons

Developments proceed as we have discussed

Article version of original post from December 1 2024

Quick update on developing events we discussed in the quoted thread. Turns out quite a few of the potential cauldrons we discussed are now imminent.

Ukrainian forces have stubbornly held the lines within these pockets, following orders from their high command. They are now at the critical point of withdrawing or being encircled. Already logistics lines are threatened in many areas and only muddy fields are available for not only supply but withdrawal. So here was our projections of advance, let's take a look at a couple of rapidly developing areas.

The strategic hub of Kurakove and its surroundings is in great peril. Its lines of communications about to be cut from behind (the west). In this image, borrowing military summary's map, the circles indicate key points & junctions RU forces are likely to take in the coming hours & days.

Let's zoom in on a couple of areas. Here we see that when the Russians take Stary Terny, which I believe imminent, the game for this pocket is up. Of course firstly this indicates that any reasonable support of the powerful units still within the pocket is no longer possible. UA forces will either escape through muddy fields at night, or end up being fully encircled. The pincers will be no more than 2 km away and likely less. No paved roads left open for UA forces. More importantly however, RU forces will be able to quickly advance south with the Vovcha river reservoir anchoring one flank (either along the road, either side of the 2 smaller reservoirs, or both), and taking the main Prorovske - Kurakhove road (Prospect rd). This effectively seals the fate of Kurkakhove without a costly and deadly battle for its

dense western high-rise sector as well as other highly fortified and built up areas including Hospital, industrial, and railway areas. Separately, we can see that if the UA forces cannot stop a relatively short advance of the RU forces from the suburban areas they now hold, to the SW, the highly fortified area of Pivdennyi with its dense residential complexes and strategic junction (along with the fields within the pocket currently anchored by strong UA trench network) will be in a cauldron. I expect this small pocket to be either surrounded or taken

as UA forces take their last chance to withdraw from it, within a couple of days if not less. As far as the entirety of Kurakhove, this will depend on how quickly the Russian forces can advance southwards along the Vovcha River. From there, RU forces must quickly advance westwards along unprotected fields & along the road towards the village of Dachne. Taking this small town cuts off the alternative albeit small supply line to the Uspenivka pocket. The circles show the key areas that are likely to be taken by RU forces to create the operational encirclement, and the rectangles are the areas that will be encircled (light lines in a latter stage). As usual, UA forces have the option to avoid the encirclement by ceding the territory and withdrawing, but they are cutting it close.

Finally, just as we discussed & expected, the same thing is happening on the western end in the Velyka Novosilka region. I expect advances towards the 2 north south roads to come very quickly. This will leave only the east-west road semi open. This is turning out to be one of the larger potential operational encirclements of the war.

While the Biden administration continues to either encourage chaos around the world, be it by incompetence or design, and all eyes are elsewhere, the determined RU forces continue to advance along the muddy and cold fields of the Donbass steppe. Their tactics and capabilities, as we discussed previously ever more efficient and effective.

Later we will discuss the implications of these potential captures, the possible additional offensives each side is planning, as well as the reorganizations & changes in command that occurred.