Originally an X Post on October 4 2025
https://x.com/ZimermanErik/status/1974746475625160816
Regarding the apparently imminent Trump peace plan.
Near the end of another long rotation of duty, I was looking to discuss several of the current ongoings . With Yom Kippur and Shabbat just behind us, I have not even updated myself on the latest news (terrifying as they likely are), but will relate some of our Shabbat dinner conversation.
Some were of the view that Trump’s plan is excellent (those tend to be of the “blue team” / “red team” persuasion ie whatever my team does is good, whatever the other team does is bad), and others thought that Bibi (Netanyahu) and Trump were hoping to either trick Hamas and/or hope that Hamas will reject the plan. Thus then allow for a final Israeli military push.
I thought unfortunately, the situation much worse. There is no “Bibi and Trump”, but only Bibi trying to appease Trump and out-strategize Hamas. He has thus far, despite immense domestic and foreign pressure, been able to release some 200 hostages while continuing the war... no mean achievement where Hamas’ (of fabled Arab negotiation prowess) only constant demand and immediate goal, is to stop the war.
My view was that Bibi, negotiated (more like tweaked) a plan with Trump that he could accept, knowing that Hamas would reject it as presented.
My concern was that Hamas will undoubtedly indeed reject it, but not phrase it as such. It will counteroffer, and if intelligent, will phrase the counteroffer as an acceptance. Appeasing Trump’s ego is very easy indeed, and including words to the effect of “accepting President’s Trump plan” is quite good enough for him.
At that point I figured, Trump will then pressure Israel to accept the counteroffer, as opposed to deem Hamas’ counteroffer as the rejection of the accepted (Israeli and US) terms that it is. What is then of utmost importance, is Bibi’s ability to say “No”. Israel accepted the offer as it was; and no more.
With Mr. Trump and his bulldozer diplomatic style that we have discussed in the past, having been thus far unable to bully or bend Zelensky, Putin or Hamas (all have cared little for his threats thus far), it would be truly sad... no pathetic indeed, if Bibi was the first and only one to acquiesce to being bullied and bent.
Trump is obviously and transparently desperate seeking any agreement with anyone anywhere... eager to announce his status as the peacemaker and king maker (not to mention wishing for his Nobel peace price). He will pressure any side he thinks can be pressured, and has no qualms about switching, trying and re-trying different sides back and forth.
Bibi, who has thus far, since the outbreak of the war nearly 2 years ago, shown a legendary ability to refuse to break, I worry might be reaching the limit. He may rationalize to himself and the inner cabinet that this is no more than a stratagem to get the last living hostages (20 we are told) back (Is this how he will convince Ben Gvir and Smotrich?).
Israel will agree, Hamas will release them, then obviously delay, obstruct and renegotiate various other terms of the plan, especially regarding disarming and giving up power, and then Israel can finish the operation with the IDF finally unfettered facing an enemy now without human shields (at least the Jewish ones, the Gazan population is another story).
If this is the stratagem and it works, we will be very happy, few more than I... but I fear it is an incredibly dangerous path. Trump’s plan is no more than an Israeli defeat in the war (and I say that not as a criticism of Trump, who cares little for what the plan is as long as its accepted, but as a criticism of Israel should we accept it), and it will be much harder to get out of than previous temporary ceasefires.
Netanyahu showed that he could restart the war (much to our surprise and relief!) after previous ceasefires, but this will be another story altogether. For one thing, the US ire that Israelis are so terrified of will be much worse at that point then simply not accepted the bad plan now.
The government has had much time, but it has been unable to force the IDF generals to simply win. We are literally days away from complete conquest of Gaza city, and pictures of thousands of enemy surrendering. We have a virtually empty north of the strip. To give up now is a historic sin, and an insult to Israel’s fighters who have not rested since Oct 7 2023, and a desecration to the memory of those who have fallen, in the quest for what the Israeli political and military elite refuse to allow let alone order; victory.
When I wish to catch up on the war in Ukraine, I know I am liable to find many things and even surprises: advances, reverses, both successful and failed operations by either side, but I know what I won’t find: a broken Russia and a broken Putin, betraying their soldiers and ordering a defeat. I always will find a leader trying to win, despite the massive stakes and vast forces rallied against him.
I wish I had 10% the certainty of that, when browsing Israeli news. One is forced to peruse the current events in terrifying fear of seeing more of our surrenders, withdrawals, appeasement to terror, and endless willingness to “pay a heavy price for peace”.