Zelensky at the White House
Even worse than we expected. Trump would do well to go back to basics.
March 18 2025
Zelensky visited the White House.
The event speaks for itself and it was obviously a disaster for Zelensky and his administration. There is no need to revisit it in detail. But it is important to put it in perspective and see how it might play out going forward.
We discussed the situation prior to his visit in detail in this previous article:
Geopolitical Update - Minerals Deal & Looking Forward
Article version of Original Post on Feb 27 2025
The premises have all proven to be correct.
Perhaps most importantly (other than the overall realization that Trump would find himself in a much more complicated situation than he thought vis-à-vis Russia, who also would face a much more complex geopolitical & diplomatic challenge in front of it than under a hapless Biden 2 administration under Harris; all contrary to the common knowledge & commentary at the time) that firstly, all Ukraine had to do was accept the notion of a ceasefire along present lines, which then Russia would not accept (because it would like to achieve victory in this hard-fought war), and precipitate a Russia - US split; at least for a while until they figure out this obviousness out.
Secondly, that Zelensky was too foolish, self righteous and unaccustomed to real diplomacy (as opposed to western Western & woke silk glove handling) to understand this and would miss that opportunity. Instead, by not accepting an immediate ceasefire, would simply play into Russian hands to gain additional time to complete their goal of victory.
Additionally, I criticized Zelensky for (knowingly) going to sign a deal that was obviously a detriment to Ukraine in exchange for nothing really (though it wasn’t much good for the US either ironically), in order to sit in front of the cameras with the new POTUS.
All of that has proven very correct.
What I did not expect, as a consequence of underestimating Zelensky’s ability to be Surreptitious (if not plain weaselly), and actually come to the signing without any intention to sign the deal at all.
One must remember, that these occasions are largely scripted, especially what amounts to a signing ceremony. The statesmen’s staffs go over a myriad of details, down to choreography and wardrobe (in Zelensky’s case quite important), let alone the actual key points of negotiations. They tend to be mere photo opportunities to display the fruits of negotiations that have already occurred, not an actual forum to negotiate. This is true even for events nominally intended to be for negotiations (summits and the like), and much more so for what amounts to a signing visit.
So while it looked that Trump had fooled Zelensky into signing a worthless (to both sides) and detrimental (to Ukraine) deal in exchange for being seen shaking hands with him, Zelensky, flaunting the rules of diplomacy, was fooling Trump by coming to be seen shaking hands without intending to sign the deal (unless it was drastically renegotiated in the event).
I must say that we were not completely surprised by that turn of events, as the above cited article ends with the following:
It was clear to me at least, that Zelensky was “not coming in good faith”, and that he would attempt to gain what is not in the deal in public statements during the televised parts of the talks, as well as renegotiate the deal. Though the above text can be read to mean that I basically precisely predicted the outcome, in truth my only error in thinking was not attributing a surreptitious intent on the part of Zelensky.
I understood that Zelensky did not wish to sign the deal, and that he was using the occasion to attempt to hopefully renegotiate it, and at worse make public statements demanding (as he does) everything he wanted and wasn’t getting. But I did not think that he would actually attend what was a signing ceremony without any attempt to sign at all.
As a soldier, Zelensky’s green shirt charade has always really irritated me (as any reader of my posts knows), and have often wondered how world leaders and media seem to either not notice it, or worse note it only in admiration. Trump, perhaps not surprisingly, instinctively hated this charade and it is clear that his staff made clear to the Ukrainians that Zelensky was expected to wear a suit at the White House, oceans & continents away from the front line, if the many hundreds of kilometers from it at his Kiev palace are not enough.
Trump immediately commented on Zelensky’s attire as he welcomed him at the White House. He too, was surprised at what this president was willing to say he would do and subsequently ignore.
Later, once inside a member of the press took up the case and asked Zelensky about his (missing) suit. Admittedly, Zelensky’s answer sounded much worse than he meant it. Zelensky tried to somehow mock the reporter’s own suit (as apparently very expensive/stylish?) to deflect, and said that when the war was over he would gladly wear a “costume” like him (and nearly everyone else in the room).
To Western, or at lest American ears, his reply was in essence that he is a serious man dealing with a serious war, and he cares about that and not fashion (ironic implication for the green shirt wearing PR obsessed president); after it was all over he will gladly “dress up” in “costume” like all the rest of the clowns (including POTUS). Truly shocking.
Regrettably, it is unlikely that this is exactly what Zelensky met. He probably simply meant “suit” when he said “costume” as that is the cognate used in Russian (and other languages). I am sure that many Americans, including some in the room, took it as the insult it sounded like, and this influenced the course of events at the event.
In any event, it is another sign of this man’s foolishness. Putin as I understand it, speaks fluent German and a little French as well. His English is likely at least as good as Zelensky’s (whose isn’t?) and likely significantly better. But you won’t catch him in formal events like this speaking anything but Russian and using interpreters. This is a basic rule of statesmanship. Unless your English is Bibi Netanyahu level (basically perfect & with a command of the language superior to the vast majority of native speakers), use an interpreter! It gives you a chance to consider your answers, and does not put you at an automatic and unnecessary disadvantage in relation to your foreign counterparts.
This is especially true in formal settings and televised sessions. In Zelensky’s mind, wearing a green or brown shirt (or sweater if he is chilly) makes him a commando in everyone’s eyes and speaking in his barely comprehensible English makes him “relatable” or.. “one of us [of the West]”. All true when handled by an adoring and uncritical press and painfully untrue when faced with a dose of reality.
Kudos to the Vice President, who at one point finally dispensed with the niceties and addressed the obvious tension in the room due to the lack of honor of their guest. It was VP JD Vance, that precipitated the just breakdown of the event.
Now, skipping over the exact chain of events, the precise comments, and the broader geopolitical issues, there was one major and fundamental problem with Zelensky’s attitude.
You see, in general, outside of insulting Russia and Putin, he does not have much to say other than repeating “they came to our land”. I have, since the beginning of the conflict, explained that the reason so many people across the world found being on the Ukrainian side so easy, was their ignorance of geopolitics, the region & its history, in combination with being told that the Russians had crossed the line on the map.
It doesn’t matter that the day previous, they could not have found Ukraine (or its lines) on a world map, it doesn’t matter that the sacred lines they are now looking at do not match reality since 2014 when the conflict started (nor of course any time before 1991 back to the beginning of human history), and certainly more complex arguments and realities do not matter either. Allow me a short digression to explain.
Crossing the Lines
Wars typically require someone to cross some line. In recent memory, the US and its allies tend to do the line crossing, for example, be it Grenada, Panama, Iraq, Somalia, Serbia, Afghanistan, Libya, etc, we seldom see foreign forces fighting US forces on US soil. It is a testament to US strength, that we do not see this. It is US forces that cross oceans, continents, and many “lines” on maps, to attack whoever they are attacking. But the reason these actions can be supported by many (and not all of course) US & western citizens is because of knowledge of the issue at hand, however basic (and of whatever accuracy).
A US citizen might be able to tell you why the US has invaded x or y country (doesn’t matter if he is right or not). So the “line” on the map ceases to be the deciding factor; certainly not the only factor. An opponent simply pointing out to that American, that Afghanistan had a shape on the world map defined by lines, which US forces crossed, would not suddenly shock the American (nor a western audience to the discussion) onto his knees whaling for forgiveness. Obviously, Afghanistan has borders… and “we crossed them” the American will tell you… to attack his enemies, due to the reasons he stated, and to seek victory over them.
If on the other hand, CNN suddenly tells him Alephaland just invaded Betaland, then he knows only that a sacred line (whose existence he did not know of moments ago) was violated, and the bad guy is the line-crosser.
On Oct 7th, Hamas was the bad guy, because they crossed the line into Israel… every day since then Israel has been the the bad guy since we have crossed lines in retaliation. The geopolitics of the atheist is the belief that the current lines on a map (which have never stopped changing in all of history) were set by Gd. All who violate them (except them of course), are evil, and who defend them good.
Praise me, pay me, and thank me
Anyway, the media support and public ignorance have allowed Zelensky to reach unprecedented levels of support simply by stating this one fact. He seemed somewhat confused at the White House as the magic words seemed to have lost their effect. “But they came to our land!”.
Zelensky thinks that this statement allows him and his government to commit any and all acts, against their enemies, their own citizens or anyone else, at will and with impunity from judgment. Additionally he has been taught, that the West owes him infinite support without limitation. Thus, when Zelensky came to plead, if not to beg, for US support, a clear disconnect is seen.
Zelensky lectured Trump and his administration. They came to our land. Shut your mouths, sign the checks and say thank you brave green cladded man. He kept not only demanding things, but showing outrage that anyone could have any thought or opinion regarding this war or his administration.
Zelensky’s tough guy act is as irritating as his attire. He would not accept that he should consider anything else but to keep fighting Russia with endless western support. First let us put aside that “he” does not fight Russia, “he” sits in palace in Kiev or flies around the world begging.. I mean demanding, money.
But if we put that aside, and forget the hundreds of thousands his regime conscripts to do the actual fighting and go with his tough guy act for the moment… if “he” wants to fight Russia, he doesn’t need anyone’s permission. Go ahead. knock yourself out.
They came to your land. You will never compromise, you think you are Churchill (which as some may recall I predicted would happen in the first days of the conflict). No problem, fight on. You came to beg. You didn’t come to ask for permission to fight Russia. If you want to beg folks for money, then the opinion of the folks will tend to matter.
Russia gets help from no one. That is correct, no one. “North Korea”, “China” will be yelled out. Believe me, they are not big charity donors to the Russian Federation. There is a big difference between the fact that there are some countries that did not sanction Russia, and are willing to do business with it, and charity.
Ukraine isn’t sanctioned by nearly anyone. That does it virtually no good. Ukraine does not need a market to purchase goods and services from, it needs (and has received) a giant and continuous welfare check.
So what I found most distasteful was this disconnect. The man came to ask (to put it nicely) for support from the US but then was astounded that he would have to listen to their views, let alone consider them. His method of “asking” for support is to lecture and inform the donor, in terrible English of course, that they must pay, and say thank you.
It was interesting to see Trump, rather than Vance, really get annoyed when Zelensky extended his preaching in an attempt to scare the Americans, telling the room that if they don’t help him, then they will be next. Trump didn’t take kindly to the threat and told him in so many words.
Zelensky’s behavior of course is a direct consequence of how the western media has treated him and his regime for these last few years (not here though of course!). He found it very surprising to get a different treatment.
The obvious move finally understood
In any event, after this catastrophic White House visit, even the short sighted Ukrainian administration was able to convince their President of the obvious way to handle Trump. Only days later… as I have long feared… “Just say yes”. We want peace, putting the ball in Russia’s court and hoping to brew conflict between her and the US.
Zelensky, offered an apology and stated that he would accept a ceasefire. This was an obvious move, but it took them quite a while to get there. Now my concern grew…
First there was talk in early March of a partial ceasefire. This of course would play into Ukrainian hands. Striking infrastructure and other targets in the hinterland is one of Russia’s advantages, it is removed at its peril.
In general, any type of partial ceasefire tends to be a betrayal of troops. A war is a war, and either you fight it or you don’t. As First Sea Lord Fisher said “The essence of war is violence and moderation in war is imbecility”.
Allowing your men to continue to fight, kill and be killed, while holding back capabilities to appease your enemy is abhorrent to the code of the warrior. The best you can do while fighting a war, is to do your best to win it. If you want a ceasefire, peace, or to surrender, go ahead, obtain them. Partial ceasefires obviously work only to the benefit of the side which is being appeased, while shooting still goes on at his convenience.
With some twists and turns what has followed is some sparring between the Trump administration and Russia. Oddly, I have seen comments buy the US administration condemning missile strikes or the like (by Russia). This type of thinking is obtuse. The US is working on a ceasefire, fine… but until one is reached obviously there is a war ongoing. And during a war, warlike actions take place. If the US wishes to be seen as an objective broker of the peace, then absurd statements like this are counterproductive. In war, soldiers shoot.
Trump and many of the folks in his administration were not well versed in this conflict, and though they knew the Mickey Mouse MNBC version was not realistic, they still assumed some of its premises. Russia has fought a very hard war, and wishes to win it. The Trump administration, or at least many of its relevant members, do not or did not at first appreciate this fully.
Soldiers can take defeat… they don’t like it but they can accept it. What they won’t accept is betrayal. I doubt that Putin will repay the valor of the Russian soldiers by showing political cowardice in return.
Leverage
Hopefully Trump can see himself back to the very simple realities of the existing leverage he wields. We discussed it before his taking the oath of office.
Leverage over Russia is very limited. Short of direct military conflict, it is hard to sanction it any further. The only thing left is to sanction countries and companies that do business with Russia, and companies and countries in turn that do business with those that do.. and so on and so forth. Not a pretty picture to attempt this route. The US and the Trump administration have plenty of work to do and goals to achieve, without attempting to go down this dangerous and unnecessary road.
On the other hand, leverage over Ukraine is near total. The war cannot go on without huge amounts of aid given by the West to Ukraine, and specifically by the US.
Trump very briefly (few days) stopped aid to Ukraine. Then, almost inexplicably, has restarted it at virtually Biden levels. Let us explain.
With a brief look (not a deep dive), we can see that during 2024 Ukraine received some $30 billion USD worth of the $61 billion authorization. This is in addition to 2 to 5 billion received in early 2024 before the authorization. The authorization thus has another $30 billion or so left over for 2025, without Trump passing or requesting from congress any additional aid!
Additionally, though Ukraine is being supplied at record 2024 levels (under Biden), the headlines read that the the US has ceased or diminished support, prompting Europeans to up their aid significantly. This means that as of now, Ukraine is being better supplied and supported, than during 2024 under Biden.
Trump instinctively knew, while campaigning, that it was US aid that allowed the war to continue, and knew that cutting it was the leverage needed to stop it. Somehow, he has (temporarily hopefully) been led astray, and I can guess why.
This damn minerals deal. It started as a ruse against Zelensky, “sign this deal and you can take a picture with me”. The Ukrainians have managed to reverse it. Keep giving us aid and we keep alive the hope that we will sign it.
You see, Trump very much wants the optics of the minerals deal. In typical Trump ideology (a part of his ideology I like less), he is constantly seeing the US as ripped off, taken advantage of and the like. He hates the idea of the US not getting its money’s worth in any situation. To this end, he detested the unconditional aid the Biden administration provided to Ukraine, which only enabled mass death and destruction, without any US benefit. Trump was very keen on turning that Biden malinvestment into a profitable investment, or at least be see as doing so.
The minerals deal, though vague and really of not much benefit to anyone in the draft we saw (discussed it in an earlier piece for those interested) is Trump gold; or at least gold for Trump.
Trump is hard pressed to see that American investment wasted, and his attempt at saving it fail. He counted on the minerals deal as an early success; especially if reaching a ceasefire was going to take longer than he hoped. In reality, the worthless deal is being used as leverage by Ukraine over the US administration. The money given to Ukraine has indeed been (and continues to be) wasted, if there is any profitable deal to be made at all, it is more likely to be with Russia, and perhaps with Ukraine at a latter stage as it faces defeat.
You see, it was as simple as Trump thought originally. It is the cutting of aid to Ukraine which is the key to ending the war and limiting its (already massive) deathtoll. Because not only is the former a nearly total leverage over Kiev, the threat of restarting it (and perhaps even increasing it) is an actual leverage over Russia. But as long as aid to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia, leverage over Russia is nil.
Appearing to break with Biden policy, while continuing it, is not a good way to broker peace, but it is a good way to lengthen the war and increase its toll.
Some in the administration may have been worried that the path I suggest means a Russian victory. They may have convinced the administration that a “draw” ceasefire is required. It is a mistake for Trump to inherit the goals of what he has often described as “Biden’s war”. On the contrary, allowing Russia to reach its stated (openly and privately) goals, in a war that the West (and Zelensky) unwisely shoved Ukraine into, is sobering. The world is a dangerous place, and when the clowns are in charge, all will not end well. Furthermore, it is the removal of the obstacles to this quick victory that will recreate the leverage the US has over Russia, if for example it choses to exceed its stated goals (and keeps advancing).
Hopefully Trump comes back around to seeing that it is the complete cessation of aid to Ukraine, especially for a country whose main challenge and (I’d say even existential) goal is to cut an out of control deficit (funded by money printing), which is the key for a successful navigation of that war.
Zelensky should be clearly told, that “he” and Russia can fight if they want to, but on their own dime.
While the Trump administration figures its path forward in regards to this war, I am thus far impressed, though not surprised, by Mr. Putin, who does not break nor easily sway with the political winds, despite serious hardships, lest he betray the brave men that on his orders continue to advance, in frost or heat whether on motorbikes, tanks, through underground pipes and tunnels or by air, that they be worthy of their father’s fathers.