2023 Israel Hamas War - Updates

Various Posts & Updates

In the first post, a we are called up to fight on October 7th, I attempted, as I tend to do, to look forward as much as possible with the little time. Instinctively, I understood the scale of the attack was much larger than what was then being reported, and I knew that it had been foremost a statesmanship failure (as all my previous articles on the subject show), followed by an intelligence failure as well as an organizational failure in terms of organizing a response. But it was not a military failure in terms of revealing IDF weakness or Hamas strength. I could also quickly see the similarities to the Yom Kippur War, especially having read (Egypt’s) General Shazly’s book. It was evident that this had been studied in detail and copied in many respects.

Also evident to me was, that the pictures would soon be very different (and thus the media condemnation which switch sides). Israel was not breaking down as some thought, but just awakening.

Quick word was also dedicated to Nasrallah (who I thought may likely select to keep out of the conflict for now), Iran, Turkey, Russia, and the soon to come Biden White House pressure against Israel, as he continues to preside over a chaotic decay of the West.

I did not however, know about the extent of the slaughter that had occurred and was still occurring, nor of the heroic bravery of the unorganized fighters that were pushing the savages back.

October 7th 2023 - Shavuot & Shabbat

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1710678527534580135

As our holidays ended, was looking forward to make long overdue important and interesting updates on the war in Ukraine, and some other subjects. Several of which I already have drafts of.

However, this is to be postponed as my fellow fighters across Israel and I, are called upon to defend our nation.

Thanks be to Gd, who has granted us the privilege to live in the Land of Eretz Israel and defend it from its enemies. There is no doubt that this morning's events represent a severe failure of Israel's security apparatus. Undoubtedly this was greatly aided by the intentional weakening many in Israel's society have been pursuing for many months now, prompted by the fact that they do not like some proposed changes in regulations that the democratically elected government can pursue that would diminish their (the left's) institutionalized hold on power regardless of election results.

These hippies have caused some chaos and demoralization in the intelligence services and in the higher ranks of the IDF where they predominate. On the more junior ranks, the 18 year old soldiers of today are not raised nor trained like their counterparts of years by. Israel is by no means immune to the wokeism and liberal diseases that plague the western world.

Unfortunately, our enemy decided to pair their bold move with barbaric violence and murder. Images from throughout today are extremely difficult to watch for anyone with any actual context on the matter, and I will not repost them here. Social media has been awash with them. Women, children and elderly people were killed and kidnapped, dragged into heinous captivity within Gaza.

However, the men are on the way now. They surprised us, certainly, and on our biblical holiday much like they did to our fathers during Yom Kippur those decades ago. But we now, cool and collected, though with much anger at the atrocities committed against us, march to set things straight. May we, like them before us, be able to rise to the occasion and do our duty.

With Gd's help, it will become clear that Hamas, at Iran's prodding if not command, bit off much more than they can chew; and the images that we will be seeing going forward, will be very different than the ones of today.

Thankfully, the Israeli government was at least prescient enough, to resist US and NATO pressure to supply weapons to Ukraine. A subject we discussed with some detail previously. While many NATO countries have current critically low levels of certain weapons and ammunitions, the IDF is well stocked. We await the orders of our commander, Bibi Netanyahu.

I hope that our worthy opponent Hassan Nasrallah opts to stay out of this conflict. He need not join forces with kidnappers and murderers of women, children and the elderly. If he does, with Gd's help it will end very differently for him than our previous bout. Thus he may wisely opt out, despite Iranian pressure.

Hopefully Israel and Russia can see eye to eye, and avoid any further strengthening of Iran, Turkey and their proxies at both their expense. Biden, does plenty of Iran strengthening himself as did his boss Obama, and as leader of the free world continues to reign over a collapse of the western world, and ever more chaos.

May Hashem watch over all our fighters, and grant us speed, strength, courage, intelligence and the will to prevail over our foes.

A Day or Two Later

I was able to quickly post once again, as Israel stabilized the lines. Already, against the common media narrative, could tell that the Hamas attack had not gone as they planned, and that neither would Israel’s response go as they foresaw. Weeks later, some people are beginning to see this. Hope to be able to discuss that thought in further detail later.

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1711114025172353385

Early progress good. The fronts are stabilized while the response is set in motion.

Of course the success and wisdom of such a response has to do with actual consequences specifically territorial consequences that Israel no longer knows how to implement. Have discussed this at length previously.

So far no particular advanced drone actions from our foes which is encouraging. The unprecedented and murderous "success" of hamas actions was due to their execution against nearly non existent idf forces.

The failure was as I realized immediately firstly an intelligence one. The hamas fighters and tag along mob did well against unsuspecting young girls at a rave and unarmed families in small communities. They are faring and will fare very differently against our nation's warriors who have gathered to defend, rescue and avenge.

Hamas believed the many hostages would lead to their impunity as well as negotiated concessions. They misjudged both the difference between 1 hostage and dozens or hundreds among hundreds murdered, and the character of our people. The response will not be as they hoped.

Hopefully others will not fail to realize all of this, and opt to not join the kidnappers against us. Our response must come swiftly and powerfully. The miserables must receive it in full. But others with honor need not, unless we are given no other option.

Am Israel Chai!

October 12th

Updating during conflict I found, was not really possible. Used the occasion for some fun at mainstream progressive media’s expense.

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1712413374284239313

I can now confirm that you cannot really partake in ongoing hostilities and report much of anything. Even if you had battery, reception and the free time, operational security would not allow it.

You can propagandize but not report. Still will try if and when possible.

October 25

More than 12 days later was able to update again. So much of what this conflict involved we had discussed in much detail for many years.

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1717165787209687088

Sadly, much of what needs to be said regarding Israel's current strategic dilemmas and opportunities, I have written long ago.

Still don't have time for an update, but for those interested in the background to this conflict and some of my unfortunately prophetic articles, I have written plenty for years. Such as:

2009:

Olmert and Gang – How to snatch defeat from the Jaws of Victory (on Operation Cast Lead)

2014:

Murdered Children, Kassam rockets, Israel’s lack of deterrence and the Opportunity

The Tragedy of Israel’s PR Campaign

Gaza – The Big Picture and What Israel Should Do (have done)

The Truth Behind the ‘Disproportionate’ Reactions to Israel’s actions in Gaza

Operation Protective Edge, Tactics and Strategy

2018:

Lieberman Resigning? Hamas Rockets rain down on Israel with little Response

As was the case during these years, and despite the shocking slaughter, rape and kidnapping of our women, children, elderly and even babies a fortnight ago, we are yet to see if the political echelon will stop standing between us and our enemies.

Hope to soon be able to at least in brief, update on some of the tactical and operational elements in play currently.

November 3rd

Finally attempted to put the above thoughts into a new article to explain the conflict, from an Israeli perspective.

(on Twitter https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1720403800635085058)

Also Addressed Hassan Nasrallah’s upcoming scheduled speech.

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1720408421017481362

Nasrallah, Hezbollah's chief, set to speak soon for the first time since the war began. He is our most intelligent foe.

Counter to comment perception, he is not under complete Iranian control and has his own interests.

Though it went unnoticed, the Iranian Foreign Minister early on in the war stated that if the IDF entered the Gaza strip, Hezbollah would enter the war. This indicated to me that Iran wanted Hezbollah to state this, but it had refused.

Recently the claim was repeated but replacing Hezbollah with Iranian-backed militias.

Iran pressured Shiite Houthis to fire on Israel from the relative safety of Yemen (the IAF will hopefully change that perception soon). Yet it seems Hezbollah refused.

I do not know which way his speech will go but have a few thoughts regarding the matter.

If it was to claim a broad jihad against Israel, it would have likely been preceded by an attack.

On the other hand, if it will be an attempt to explain why Hezbollah will not enter the conflict at this point, there are several reasons that Nasrallah may use.

1. No one discussed the initial Oct 7 attack with him. Thus he is under no obligation to join now.

2. He is doing already a lot by keeping large IDF forces in the north which cannot join the attack on Hamas.

3. He will not bring destruction upon Lebanon and that the palestinians must fight their own wars.

4. The leaders of Hamas sit in luxury in Dubai while they demand he, at the front, fight the IDF.

5. He may say that he did not like the nature of the attack. That butchering women and children is against Islam, and so that now Hamas must lie on the bed that it made. Strategically it has foolishly unleashed an enraged IDF, and that he wants no part of it in Lebanon.

6. With the IDF at full alert and fully mobilized, this is not the right time to attack.

7. He may say that he will not join, or fully join, as long as certain red lines are not crossed. IE the expulsion of population to Egypt or complete toppling of Hamas.

These are just some that come to mind, and he may use some of these, variations or combinations (or none at all).

Something that I believe is a real possibility is that while he may use such (or similar) rationale for staying out of the conflict at this point, he may declare areas under control, especially southern Lebanon, open for other Iranian-backed militias (who do listen to Iran) and other forces to attack Israel.

He may hope that this will restrict the IDF's response against Hezbollah and Lebanon proper.

All of this comes from Israel's policy of being at peace with folks who can be at war with you. The one-way war policy. Nasrallah, should be respectfully asked if he is at war with Israel or not. If he is, then he should be shown war, and if he is not, an actual peace, with a demilitarized border can be respected.

Like in Gaza, ground troops should only be sent in if territorial consequences will be imposed. Going into Lebanon and then exiting, will leave Hezbollah free to say that it once again went toe to toe with the IDF and won, exactly like during the Second Lebanon War.

I for one tire of Deja vu in Israeli politics. Especially since I have to personally do the attacking and withdrawing.

(My update after his speech):