Fascinating Putin Interview

The Grain Deal (possible end of) and Wagner

Article format of an earlier thread:

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1679693199638446080

Fascinating interview given the gaps in our knowledge currently. Starts with the Grain Deal and ends with Wagner. Subtitles are roughly accurate. As some may recall, I have long argued that the grain deal was very much against Russia's interest, more so if the few commitments to

her benefit are broken and ignored. The Black Sea grain deal has helped prolong the conflict to Russia's (and probably Ukraine's) detriment. Wrote about this previously here:

Since writing the (above) article, Russia has repeatedly but reluctantly extended the Grain Deal. It seems that finally, Putin's had enough (perhaps). As we discussed, Turkey is a big reason why the grain deal has been extended, and lately, recently re-elected Erdogan has gotten even "tougher" on getting the grain deal extended. I want to discuss this interesting part (and why it behooves Russia to cancel it regardless of Turkey's threats) elsewhere & hopefully have time for it soon.

Regarding the interview on hand, Putin makes a sound case regarding western money printing being the cause of inflation in general (affecting food & energy prices) and western under-investment in energy aggravating the situation. On top of all that, sanctions on Russia make the bad situation worse, and correctly mocks the mainstream western narrative that inflation (along with everything else) is Russia's fault. We of course have mocked the hypocrisy of the western leadership and media as well as their disdain for their public in this regard frequently:

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1675510329416073216

Mr. Putin also points to the fact that the is sure that the UN is doing what it can to make the deal work (perhaps genuinely interested in food for the world market or at least in the perception of their genuine interest as is nominally its job), but that the Western countries do not comply. We hear also from the President's mouth, that the concern was for the poorest countries.

This is evidence that my instinct (explained in the Grain Deal article quoted above) in this regard was correct from the announcement of the grain deal (when Russia's motivations were unknown and her supporters were actually denying that there was an embargo or blockade on Ukraine at all). We knew better. Russia cares about its image in the non western, non-aligned, and third world. It may also genuinely want to avoid hunger in those countries if it can.

Mr. Putin prepares the groundwork for the cancellation by explaining that only about 3% of UA's grain under the agreement went outside of Europe (in economic terms, that doesn't really matter much... it's an addition to the world supply, which lowers prices, and its absence would raise prices, which then the poorer countries can less afford - ie Europe would be out-bidding and buying other supply that is now available to the poorer countries).

We then get to Wagner.

First let us note that the interview was published by Russia's Kommersant. It is generally close to the Kremlin and Putin, but it has a complicated relationship with both. It is currently owned by Uzbek Alisher Usmanov, a billionaire reported close with Putin. It makes sense that a sensitive story like this would be entrusted to the Kommersant, and we can expect that the Kremlin would have a say, if not full control, of how it is presented. Having said that, it is important to note that we see no video footage of Mr. Putin answering the Wagner questions. The article (https://kommersant.ru/doc/6098488)

quotes the President on these subjects. In fact, Andrey Kolesnikov says that he and Pavel Zarubin met Putin by the elevator as he exited the hall (where he had spoken at a technology-related event). This is to imply an impromptu quality to the interview and thus, sincerity. Andrey writes that he told the President “I won’t forgive myself if I don’t ask one more question”. He went on to ask about the meeting between Wagner and Putin at the Kremlin.

Below a translation of this section:

And continues:

As we see, Putin is quoted as saying that he indeed met with 35 people, Wagner members including Prigozhin for about 3 hours. That the PMC Wagner does not exist (legally), and that he gave the fighters, who had fought bravely for Russia, the choice to continue to serve together under their same commander callsign Seda ("Gray"),

who is likely Andrey Troshev (second from left). It is of note that this Wagner leader was reportedly fired by Wagner AFTER the mutiny (here reported by Newsweek…) If this is true, due to either a perceived betrayal (of Prigozhin by Troshev), such as refusing to join the mutiny or alerting authorities, then it would make sense that Putin would offer the group the chance to remain as an organic unit under this commander (who perhaps Putin believes had not betrayed him and the state). It then also would make sense that Prigozhin did not accept that compromise, angry at the fired ex-commander.

There must be something there, because it is a great coincidence that this commander is mentioned alone and specifically, unlike others (such as the better known Utkin), while he is also the lone commander mentioned since the mutiny as "fired" by Wagner. What to make of all this? Hard to say. The paper as noted, Kommersant, is mostly pro-Putin but not always nor completely. The writer, Andrey has criticized Putin in the past and seems to do so in this article as well, with the last line.

In any event, while this does not confirm for us for certain that such a dramatic meeting occurred at the Kremlin between Wager leaders and Putin himself (after the mutiny), and it also does not necessarily mean that Mr. Putin said these things to the Kommersant reporters outside that elevator, it does at least indicate that the Kremlin wanted that story put out in some form. Andrey Kolesnikov can hardly be expected to get an exclusive interview from the President, and then unilaterally misquote him without repercussion nor even reaction from the Kremlin. This should not surprise us because the Kremlin press secretary himself, had already reported on this alleged meeting.

I hope to follow up shortly regarding the battlefield, and the Wagner Prigozhin situation in more detail in article form (as well as the Turkey and Grain Deal issue), but wanted to comment on this very interesting and under-reported interview first.

What is done regarding both the Grain Deal and Wagner/Prigozhin is of great consequence for Russia in this difficult war, and thus for the world. Neither choice easy. What to do (or has been done) about both, ultimately rests in the hands of the man interviewed, Vladimir Putin.