Hamas Violates Trump Plan at the Outset and is running out of leverage

Israel can yet achieve victory, or return to the tired formula of defeat I have criticized for decades. Israel's leftist Anti-Netanyahu protests may split on remaining hostage bodies.

Article version of original thread:
https://x.com/ZimermanErik/status/1978429969727439316

In the previous piece we discussed what led to the then imminent plan, and of course what may happen next.

Now after the official agreement only to phase A (hostage and prisoner exchange plus partial Israeli withdrawal), the subsequent failure of Hamas to return all the hostage bodies (not even close thus far), not to mention show no sign of their willingness to disarm or give up power, is one of the most powerful tools Israel can use to restart the war, with the enemy no longer possessing human shields, and swiftly win it.

I mentioned this immediately upon the news of only 4 bodies released by the end of the 72 hour deadline.

In fact, Hamas clearly violated the deal by lying about how many bodies they could return by the deadline and/or far worse and more likely, did not return all the bodies they had by the deadline. This was a clear violation of the very first phase of the Trump brokered deal, and the only part thus far agreed upon by the parties. The rest was dependent on this critical first part.

Now, though of course my preference is to win a war (something Trump correctly rubbed in our faces as what he would do, in his Knesset address - I will point that out later) and very much hoped, as my readers know all too well, that Israel would impose territorial consequences on the Gazans and at the very least occupy a (then) very empty northern strip, Bibi has orchestrated leverage in the opposite geographic direction.

Though Israel does not have half the strip from north to south (which includes the coastline), it does hold about half the strip from west to east, leaving the Strip… much more of a strip. Failure of Hamas to disarm and/or return the bodies, will at least freeze Israeli lines as they are. No fighting is necessary for Israel to simply and easily hold that line. Additionally, Israel will use leverage regarding the entry of aid and reconstruction funds. Now controlling the Philadelphia corridor and Rafah in the south, smuggling will be much more difficult for Gazans (though not impossible). Rearming will also become much more difficult, mostly limited to domestic production.

While I long ago feared, at the very outset of the conflict 2 years ago, that smuggling concerns would end up with the IDF holding Rafah and thus deter the population from moving out of Gaza through Egypt, and preferred pressuring from north to south to encourage it, the situation is not as bad as it could be.

Note this Nov 2023 post for example which included:

and this:

Today, territory is still in Israel’s hands, as is the main smuggling corridor, and in order to proceed with the brokered peace plan, Gaza needs to be demilitarized (w Hamas disarmed), and all Israeli bodies returned. Even if the war cannot be restarted for total victory, a complete defeat can also be avoided.

As I have written for years (better part of 2 decades), the endless rounds of Gaza wars & clashes continue because:

1. Israel imposes no territorial consequence (ie Gazans are immune from defeat).

2. The post conflict billions in aid and reconstruction are an economic boon (completely controlled & distributed by Hamas) for otherwise productivity-less Gaza. Israel bulldozes structures via very expensive missiles at the expense of its taxpayer, and then Gazans rebuild them with huge Gulf, US & international aid.
   

For those interested, you can see a summary of some of my unfortunately prophetic writings throughout the years regarding the conflict and Gaza specifically in this piece:

It includes for example, this striking piece written back in 2012!

Far from the genocide widely reported, the Gazans know IDF incursions are largely consequence-less (within their ability and desire for “struggle” and overcome inconvenience), and temporary.

After the Oct 7 massacres and 2 years of fighting, we find ourselves in danger of repeating this formula. The Trump plan, if actually implemented would be a version of this on steroids (even more money, make them even richer), & includes further promises of additional territory and statehood. If Israel finds itself with an identical Gaza on its SW corner of the map (let alone even bigger!), and billions upon billions of money flowing into it, then total defeat has been achieved at the cost of blood, treasure and the heroic efforts & sacrifice of our brave fighters.

Of course, the plan differs in theory in that in its demilitarization & disarmament, Gazans (& whatever its ruling political party calls itself) would find it harder to unleash another round. But firstly, this is irrelevant and the source of the political sickness in Israel (will comment on it hopefully later in more detail), and secondly only a matter of time.

Since Egypt cracked down on smuggling around 2013, much of Hamas’ weaponry is domestically produced. And maritime smuggling, as well as smuggling in regular commercial trade is always possible.

I will make the following prediction.

If Hamas (or whatever Gazans rulers call themselves) will fail to release the hostage bodies over a longer period of time, we will begin to see a break in Israel’s leftist camp (the protest pros). Many, who genuinely believed the slogans and cared for the hostages and their families will continue to demand the government act to ensure their return.

But many others, fearful of Israel potentially restarting the war and winning (and thus Bibi winning), or expanding Israeli territory by holding what we have, and not clearly losing, will start to devalue the dead bodies. They will continue to pressure for Israeli concessions and surrender. You see, live hostages work as human shields, and freeing them still alive lends certain logic to surrender and appeasement of the enemy.

Dead hostages alone do not.

Even by leftist logic, they cannot be killed again. Therefore, the logic leads to turning the pressure on its head. There could be pressure now from well meaning leftists for the army to go in, squash our terrorist enemy & recoup our bodies. The right of course is happy to agree.

But many on the left will then (I am sure creatively) weave messages and stage protests against this. They will continue to demand surrender, and ultimately start to devalue the previously infinite value of dead hostages. The lives of our troops for example, will suddenly be worth more.

Once again, the transparent hypocrisy and falseness of their arguments will be on display. Relatively few will note it.

We of course hope that Trump will take the violations as violations, and not pressure Israel to endlessly acquiesce in order to save the headline existence of his peace deal.