The Ceasefire - A Ruse or Trump Desperate for an Offramp.
The stakes are nothing short of victory or defeat, and with it the rest of the second Trump administration's potential and legacy.
Article version of original April 7th Post
Mr. Trump’s 2-week ceasefire announcement, combined with the over-the-top warnings and threats of the last 2 days indicate POTUS badly wanting this off ramp to begin with.
The announcement has the tint of negotiation with himself. I think we will see at least mixed messaging and actions as far as Iran “immediately” opening the Strait of Hormuz. Not sure the entire command structure in Iran is onboard with this at the moment.
Reference to a 10-point plan announced days ago (which importantly includes a $2 million fee per ship to cross the strait, permanent cease-fire and lifting of all US sanctions) indicates that Iran offered nothing new - did not cave to the current Trump ultimatum, with all its civilization-ending rhetoric. Trump already had the cards he needed, in the worse case, to nullify his own ultimatum when he made it. It appears it is his “worse case” scenario and received nothing new.
The question is if Trump, is simply yet again buying more time, as two weeks finally puts 3 carrier groups, the USS Abraham Lincoln (currently there), the the USS George H.W. Bush (arriving late April), and the USS Gerald R. Ford (back from repairs in Split, Croatia after the laundry fire) in the area and ready for operations.
A fourth group, (USS T Roosevelt) may be on its way to relieve a group or temporarily reinforce. The 31st MEU and the USS Tripoli have arrived, but a second MEU, the 11th, in the USS Boxer, USS Comstock and USS Portland are also to arrive in the next 10 days.
That array of forces (and accompanying logistics) may give Trump the force he needs to reopen the Strait by force if needed. Holding on as is was becoming difficult politically, and even routine issues like reloading of tomahawks and other VLS munitions is not doable at scale while at sea (require friendly port). Bahrain being out of commission, and within contested waters, is not an option in most cases. Ships must go to Duqm, Oman and/or Diego Garcia for reloading VLS canisters.
Alternatively, Mr. Trump could simply be desperately looking for an offramp.
If the latter is true, it will become painfully obvious because Iran is likely to continue to overplay its hand regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Not really open it to begin with, and yet the ceasefire will go on in one way or another; would make for a sad sight indeed.
How the regime appears to have withstood US military might, will in turn influence whether its population still respect and/or fear it enough to not attempt to topple it. Economic pressure on the regime when the bombs stop falling will be massive.
Victory or defeat here, as usual, are of great importance for both sides, and spin will not do.
Previous:
We discussed where the war was heading and how the Strait had become pivotal here (and before the mass coverage):
Then on March 26th, as Trump first mentioned a deal within 5 days, a statement which sent the IDF (an me) racing for the Litani (river) for a few days (then the Generals went back to regular IDF glacial speed), I posted the following interesting analysis and prediction (click for full text):
Then, on April 3rd 2026, as it became increasingly the US was most likely buying time for a Strait of Hormuz (or other) operation, or aimlessly looking for a way out of the conflict, I posted the following, in response to a John Bolton post:
How do you "open the Strait by force"? I don't think it can be done with carrier groups.
All it takes is a credible threat to have some forces hiding along the mountainous shores with cruise missiles or seaborne drones, and the Strait is closed. Merchant vessels and tankers are the softest of soft targets.
To do that, I think you need to either change the regime, or physically occupy all of the territory bordering the strait, with ground troops.
I believe they have us by the short and curlies, should they decide that absorbing further bombardment is worth regaining the leverage of the Strait's being closed.