US Destroyers Transit the Strait of Hormuz - It's Not what you Think

CENTCOM and Media reporting it as a Mine-clearing operation. Has little to do with mines and everything to do with Diplomatic Maneuvering.

Ladies & Gentlemen, let me put these big news in proper perspective. It is diplomatic maneuvering. It has nothing to do with mines, nor even opening the Strait by force.

As I discussed in my earlier article, there are no suspected mines in this part of the Strait.

This is why the two destroyers, part of the Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group transited the strait without any mine clearing vessels (that we know of) opening the way for them. Had their really been a threat of mines, in this deep fast-flowing part of the Strait (which is quite difficult to mine), the Destroyers would not not be ordered to detect them by blowing up upon finding them.

The Arleigh Burke-class destroyers are not minesweepers, nor are they known to even have minimal minesweeping capabilities. The Navy would use the older Avenger-class ships, recently retired from the 5th fleet, or newer Littoral Combat ships with the MCM package for this purpose.

So if there are no mines what is going on?

Iran, in an attempt to just barely stay within the 2-week ceasefire, but not give up its leverage, went from actively threatening any civilian ships transiting the strait without Iranian approval with destruction, to simply declaring that they would be in danger from mines.

Basically the Iranian idea is that, Omani territorial waters (where the traditional sea-lanes in the Strait run through), are a mine danger zone, and so ships must transit through Iranian territorial waters - through the Iranian toll booth, giving effective control of the Strait to Iran.

By saying that the Omani waters may be mined, Iran could feign plausible deniability in regards to actively threatening civilian shipping during the ceasefire.

The US decided to call their bluff, or at least to show that two can play the game. If the issue is just mines, and not the IRGC shooting drones or missiles at the civilian ships, then... no problem the Navy will just clear, verify and certify a sea-lane (through Omani waters in the south) with no mines.

In reality it was likely a bit less clever and daring than that, because earlier in the day we saw reporting, specifically from the NY Times, that Iran did not know where many of their mines were. The headline, which reads as an Iranian apologetic, tells us that Iran of course would love to abide by the ceasefire and let all ships through, but alas, it cannot find all its mines.

This indicates to us that the US at first, went along, or at least pretended to go along, with the Iranian claim; accepting that they are no longer closing the Strait actively (even though ships from the are were even reporting, and recording, radio threats of destruction by the Iranian authorities), but simply have mined parts of it. The natural next step is to ask where those mines are, and if the Iranians can remove them, with the answers to both being in the negative. So, if Iran would gladly remove its mines if it could, then it certainly won’t mind if the US Navy removes them for free right? And so the stratagem was born, perhaps not brilliantly from the start, but in fits as the US realized the Iranian ruse. Alternatively, the US pretended to buy the ruse as all of this took up a couple of days of the two weeks that the US is hoping to pass under a ceasefire for political, strategic and logistic purposes.

Of course, as discussed in more detail in the previous article, since the ruse began, and even before it, it behooved Iran to lay as many mines as it could (as it allows for passive and retroactive threatening of the Strait), so its possible some areas of the Strait are indeed mined, or that Iran will mine them in the near future. But in general, the mine threat is and was a bluff, especially in the deep and narrow part of the Strait, and the US almost certainly knows it. And if that really was the issue, then mine-clearing with Iran’s cooperation (as opposed to under threat of its fire) is no issue at all.

In any event, the idea thus being that as the Navy declares a sea-lane safe, ships will start taking it, and Iran will be forced to actively shoot (or threaten to shoot) at the civilian ships, clearly breaking the ceasefire, if it wishes to keep control of the Strait. If it doesn’t, it will have lost control of the Strait, its only leverage and pretty soon a large coalition of countries under EU or NATO, will be patrolling the Strait to keep it open for traffic.

Closing it at that point, will require picking a fight with that large coalition of countries. The additional Naval assets would allow protection of shipping corridors and/or convoys, while the US can focus its assets on fighting Iran once again. With the current US force disposition, and the US’ reduced Navy (~292 ships vs the ~600 in the 80’s, and nearly 1,000 a decade earlier), the US could not attempt to protect ships or escort convoys, while prosecuting the war. The few Destroyers were needed protecting the Carrier Strike Groups from constant Iranian drone and missile attack.

Adding a few dozen destroyers to the mix from various countries, changes the picture significantly. And while the international community is not willing to join in forcing the Strait open, it is willing to patrol and protect it, once it is open.

Basically, Iran thought it was very clever with its mining threat, allowing it to break the ceasefire while enjoying it, and it has backfired. Ironically, Iran’s only move now is to continue to close the Strait by any means possible. The US clearly required a week or two for regrouping, logistics and even for legal & constitutional purposes, and Iran would be foolish to grant it. Once the US is repositioned to restart the fight, the regime would have few cards left, especially if the new US disposition will include the potential to seize or open the strait by force. The US would be foolish if that was not the case.

All of which means that the war is JD Vance’s to lose. Only the scenario where Iran balks, and allows ships to transit in the “cleared” Omani waters (or worse, doesn’t but the US ignores the clear breach out of desperation), while somehow getting the US to accept a deal detrimental to the US would see Iran able to claim victory. The regime firmly still in power, and the Americans negotiating with them (the Iranians) as peers, looking for approval to end the war that they themselves started. Would be a sad display for the US indeed.

Anything else, leads to the conflict restarting with a better prepared US force and new plans, or an intelligent Trump administration accepting nothing short of an Iranian capitulation. The Iranian mine ruse, which for a moment halted the perception that Iran was actively threatening civilian shipping transiting the Strait, makes it very difficult to re-instate, and has backfired spectacularly.

The Iranians, overconfident in their manipulation skills, created an opportunity the US quickly and deftly exploited. Kudos to the strategician which thought of it over there.

Now, Iran’s only chance to regain even the perilous position it was previously in, is to dig deep and find the courage to once again overtly and violently re-close the Strait to civilian and military traffic defying Iranian authority.

Do they have it in them? And will the US tolerate it? Probably only for as many days as they require to refit. We shall see.