Wagner seizes Rostov HQ & is on the Road to Moscow

How did it come to this and where can it lead?

Prigozhin's "March of "Justice"! What a saga of news to come back to!

You likely have already seen today’s shocking, nearly unbelievable footage, including Wagner PMC taking over Rostov HQ

and Prigozhin speaking to semi-detained Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov (by all accounts a real soldier and a tough character) and Deputy Chief of Staff Vladimir Alexeyev (Gerasimov having fled).

(The interesting transcript of this incredible meeting here: https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/06/24/we-re-saving-russia)

For your consideration, here is my take on these stunning events.

I have been wanting to comment on the growing conflict between the MoD and Prigozhin for the last few weeks, especially after Shoigu's order that all volunteer unitshad to sign contracts with the MoD, meaning the individuals directly (I thought this was very foolish in its form and timing... more on that later).

Time did not allow this unfortunately, because I believe that piece would have aged very well.

However I was able to write this piece early on:

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1654505246754742279 (and earlier https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1654291077682061318)

Here we discussed the Wagner MoD feud. The prevalent theory going around at the time was that this was all staged, and part of a psy-ops operation. I disagreed and warned that Prigozhin was a very serious man, and obviously very daring. You would dismiss him at your peril.

With this in mind, let us take a couple of steps back to see how we get to this current shocking and very serious situation.

Figuring out what was going in behind the scenes, and in the key players' heads was difficult indeed. Why was Prigozhin allowed to continuously insult and criticize the military leadership?

Was it under Putin's protection? Did Prigozhin have political ambitions? What were they?

About a month after my piece on the furious Prigozhin, this underreported video, kindly translated by Igor Shushko (https://twitter.com/igorsushko), gave me much greater clarity. In this long video, which is definitely worth viewing, Prigozhin lays out, logically and intelligently, his

issues with the military leadership and what in his mind needs to be done to fix them. We get to understand some of what drives Prigozhin, what he cares about, and some of his core beliefs. In general, I think I read him well in my earlier pieces.

He cares about Russia, its people, honor, duty and resents the corrupt, the bureaucrats and leaders without convictions or the strength of their convictions. He again is respectful of President Putin, but a very harsh critic of the whole government structure below him (which of course is necessarily criticism of his administration by necessity). The important thing is that we get to understand what he is aiming for. Coming out of the victory of Bakhmut and huge popularity, Prigozhin was in a peak of power and the MoD by comparison in a low.

As he predicted, the flanks were starting to give way as soon as his forces withdrew from Bakhmut, and the UA army, freed from that intense engagement went on the offensive. There was a feeling that much of the regular army may be incompetent (as armies often are), and that Wagner is the only large formation that can gain territory in this war. With the efficiency and common sense of a successful entrepreneur, Prigozhin could outfight the state-run Ukrainian army, a feat the state-run Russian army was finding difficult to do.

With his feeling in the air, Prigozhin lays out his wishes. He will take care of everything. He is willing to take on the responsibility. The MoD can hold the line more or less, and just supply him with munitions; if his Wagner group is allowed to grow to 200 thousand men, he can win the war for Russia.

At the least, after the victory and some well deserved rest, he expects Wagner will be treated better by the MoD and allowed to grow to some degree and be tasked with the next challenge.

I believe that at this point, Putin may have considered this a possibility. Wagner was an Ace he was keeping in reserve in case the MoD kept failing. This is why he had not allowed Shoigu to shut down Wagner. What happened next is the catalyst to the chaos that we saw today in the Russian rear. As the Ukrainian counteroffensive went into full swing and smashed into the Russian defensive lines, it developed into a massive failure. A failure for the UA command, and a lifeline to the MoD. Here was proof that they did know what they were doing... that their pedantic administration, calculations and extrapolations were not all useless. They are playing the long game, with a bird's eye view and while there may be localized incompetence and difficult choices with a heavy cost in the short term (as we discussed earlier:

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1654505282746163201),

in the long term their methods will pan out. They chose where and how to build the defensive lines, and regular MoD units were relatively easily holding back the much touted UA counteroffensive with its 9 new Western trained and equipped brigades.

Prigozhin himself was unsure how to react. At first he was criticizing as usual, but as the failed attacks by UA command became very obvious (especially that of the 47th mech brigade) he issued a congratulatory statement to the 58th Army and the Air Force (not specifically the MoD of course).

I want to congratulate, on my own behalf and on behalf of the Wagner PMC team, on behalf of the fighters and commanders, those who destroyed enemy equipment in the Zaporizhia direction — the same Leopards that are now widely featured in the media social networks. Thank you guys! Well done! The 58th Army, artillerymen, motorized gunners who man-powered the enemy from the trenches and finished them off, and the Russian Aerospace Forces who supported them from the air. We still have work to do to restore the Russian army to its former glory and the brilliance of Russian weapons.

As the Ukrainian counteroffensive made some territorial gains in certain places, Prigozhin went back to criticism. In any event, the success gave Shoigu and the MoD newly improved standing and Shoigu chose to quickly use it to destroy Wagner (this is what I had wanted to write about before these recent events & unfortunately did not have the opportunity).

We discussed this distinct possibility in the earlier quoted piece:

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1654505295136055299

"wait to strike when the time is right."

The problem is that neither the strike nor the time were right.

Prigozhin had started a war with men who above all else play to survive at all costs. They would retaliate given the opportunity. This was not surprising, even predictable. What was surprising was the stupidity of the execution.

Having explained that Putin was likely playing neutral thus far, and keeping Wagner safe from MoD retaliation, it appears that the recent battlefield successes changed the balance. Shoigu came out with the requirement that all volunteer battalions personnel (ie Wagner) must sign contracts directly with the MoD. Now on the face of it this is absurd... a PMC is a private group. The MoD signs a contract with it of course, whether it is providing food services as is done in many armies, or security at important locations, or as in this unusual case in modern war, high intensity combat assault capability; but it does not sign directly with the PMC's employees.

Otherwise there is no PMC, the personnel are directly employed by the state just like other soldiers and state workers. The requirement to contract directly with the MoD was in essence an order disbanding Wagner, at least within the Ukrainian conflict, and applying to the vast majority of its personnel (they could still presumably run around Africa and elsewhere in much smaller numbers).

In addition, we can see that this meant that the MoD was no longer willing to renew any contract with Wagner, and thus would not be paying it anymore. Basically, Shoigu left a man of the character of Prigozhin at the head of a large and extremely loyal private army, out of money and out of options. If the MoD would not pay, how can Prigozhin pay his thousands of men? He would have to disband of course thought the Shoigus... he will tell his men "It's been fun, whoever wants to keep fighting, feel free to sign up with the MoD, and whoever doesn't... free to go home".

Anyone paying attention to Prigozhin's words would know that he would not go down that easily. I warned that he was a serious man, and of deeply held beliefs, but unserious men, "pragmatic" politicians especially, often assume that others are as unserious as they are. Shoigu likely thought that Prigozhin's antics were just political stunts. They were not. The Russian state had essentially ordered the destruction of one of the, if not the, most effective and patriotic units in its arsenal, and in an army that started with 150 - 200 thousand troops available for the war, very significant in size at about 25 thousand men. This was done primarily due to a personal feud between the Minister of Defense and the PMC's leader, and not from a strategic consideration.

There were ways, to gradually diminish Wagner's size.. the great leverage the MoD had of course was money. The MoD pays the bills, and the contract for Wagner to fight. It can decide on the size of the contract and regulate Wagner's size. The war at some point would end and Prigozin would likely accept that he would no longer command a private army of that size. He also would likely accept a smaller Wagner as long as the MoD kept paying for some of it. Instead the MoD chose to pay for none of it.

It is reminiscent of the absurdity of "defunding the police" in the US. A strange choice of terminology. A city would not reduce the size of its police, fire certain number officers or simply pass laws abolishing the force...no all that would be too normal and honorable (and legal). A police officer would simply... not get paid? The city or state would just not fulfill its obligations. So the police force would remain just as large, just as employed and just as tasked as previously, but the city would default on its contractual obligations?

This is fine as a hippie slogan, but was not seriously tried by any government in the US (that I know of). Shoigu actually tried it against a private army of 25,000 men.

When they expected thanks and praise, they received threats. They were left in their forest bases, with tanks, AD systems (that we now see on display), and advanced weaponry to do as they please. They just won't be getting any more money. I assume Wagner pays their men monthly (or thereabout), and so Prigozhin had the days between paychecks to act. He could either act, or accept the abolishment of Wagner PMC, to the glee and triumph of the MoD leaders that he despises so much. To assume that a man like Prigozhin, at the head of his powerful army, would simply cave is foolish at best. Especially when there were no forces that could stop him (as we just saw) between him and the seats of government and administration.

In the hour-long video shown above, at one point Prigozhin even jokes that the military leaders would not allow him to go to Belgorod (to defend against the recent UA incursions there) because its too close to MoD main headquarters, "we may go asking about our ammunition".

Interestingly, when asked if he would "go asking" Prigozhin answered that he ins’t “intending to for now” (the order of his demobilization had not yet been issued). The stupidity of the MoD's actions are incredible to contemplate.

The crisis is to a large extent, also of Putin's making. He first supported Wagner form the MoD and allowed it to grow to its current size. Again I believe he intended to use them as a backup plan and counterweight to the MoD in case they failed him. Later however he agreed to the MoD's order of direct individual contracts only. While he previously gave Prigozhin's claims some legitimacy (admitting that like in any state bureaucracy, there were useless people, and that they need to be weeded out, and that form the "shadows" others have come to of great service (ie Prigozhin and Wagner), he ultimately said that Shoigu's order made "common sense" and "was in accordance with the law".

Prigozhin's response to this was that his group would not be signing with the MoD and that he hoped that Putin would find a solution (ie a compromise). This is what I believed was happening behind the scenes. Obviously, the MoD was not stupid enough to leave Prigozhin and Wagner in the rear heavily armed, without money, a contract or options. Why would Russia even want to lose such an effective unit in such a difficult war?

And yet that is what they did. No compromise was reached or apparently even attempted. A compromise so much easier and face saving compared to the one that will have to happen now to avoid a catastrophe (more on that later). Once demobilized, Prigozhin would also of course not be safe from the ongoing revenge of Shoigu and his circle. He could easily be arrested or killed. The man was foolishly cornered by the bureaucrats.

They committed this grave error for a very simple reason. They could not imagine someone being as brazen, nor as bold, as to take 25 thousand men (if that) and invade the interior of Russia. Since in such a situation they would simply cave, they figured Prigozhin would as well. They were wrong.

This morning’s analysis and commentary mostly stated that this was an insane move by Prigozhin and that his rebellion would quickly be put down. That indeed, 25 thousand men cannot invade Russia, cannot take Moscow etc. I believe these comments are also in error. I do not know how this will end yet, but it is clear to me that Prigozhin is not stupid, and is a man of action. His unchallenged drive from the Donbass to Rostov and the main headquarters of the SMO is proof enough.

He is a man that can see and believe what is possible, with the clarity of his own eyes, regardless of what everyone else believes. This is a rare quality. What actually lies in his way? What resources does he have and which do his opponents? I have written previously about how the unusual freedom Prigozhin has must give him a very unusual perspective.

Without repeating it in detail here, a soldier in the army as I know all too well is just a cog in the machine. Up to a surprisingly high rank, you are still quite limited in your movements and what you see and don’t see (I once had opportunity to visit a long front with a private group and was amazed at how different an experience it was to view the IDF freely across many units rather then being within one). Prigozhin is not in the army, he is a private citizen, very wealthy and head of a large and powerful PMC. He comes and goes as he pleases. He has spent plenty of time at the front, at meetings with the high command and everything else in between. His view and knowledge of the SMO must be quite unusual. To this man, roaming the rear freely and without orders is not as crazy as it might sound to a position-bound soldier, and he would also know from experience that there isn’t much there to stop you.

The "human" factor is what matters here as in so much else. Who will stand in the way of thousand of Wagner warriors? The police? The interior ministry units? No. A determined fighter, one who is willing to close the gap and come to blows can only be stopped by his like. Lightly armed law enforcement units cannot and will not stop a Wagner army with heavy armor. Not only would they not be inclined to do so if this was a foreign enemy, but in this case have even less interest in dying fighting their own country's heroes and patriots. The willingness to confront and stop them is simply not there.

Of course the element that could eventually ware them down is the Air Force. However, by brilliantly taking over Rostov's military headquarters, Wagner has cleverly increased its capabilities. A great part of the high command is in its hands as is the key logistics hub and a great deal of weapons, munitions and intelligence that was found there. It now knows the location of all other military units in the country and likely their communications. By splitting his forces in two, Prigozhin was able to quickly take Rostov and Voronezh, the 2 main cities in the north-south axis between the Azov Sea and Moscow. Only Moscow remains.

Wagner now controls the main logistic hubs to the SMO as well as key command centers. I don't believe there are units that can easily stop them before they reach Moscow.

Rybar mapped the advance as follows:

As I write this (longer than expected piece), the leading Wagner units were reportedly nearing or reached the Moscow Oblast. Whatever units are available are attempting to block Wagner at the bridges crossing the Oka river before they can reach the city. While the capture of Rostov-on-Don and Voronezh (or some of sites in its area) was relatively bloodless, I believe a continued advance on Moscow will not likely be. Resistance there will intensify.

In short, the real error

In summary on the tactical error by the Russian state. Many will say that the mistake was allowing Wagner to get this large and powerful to begin with. Perhaps, but that is arguable and a danger inherent in any military formation (Army units and Generals often rebel, mutiny and stage coups). What is shockingly stupid is the inept attempt at deflating them.

It is an error committed by Minister of Defense Shoigu, and then unfortunately backed by President Putin.

The Russian state violated one of Machiavelli's cardinal rules. If you set out against an enemy, you must destroy him. Otherwise, leave him be. If you simply insult him, threaten him, hurt him, and the like, he will yearn for his vengeance. You can have others fear you, but not hate you. If they hate you they will always yearn to destroy you.

The state could have easily appeased Wagner, because they are patriots who want a Russian victory. They more than anything crave some recognition and prestige from the state they have given so much for.

That same state could wield that fierce weapon against the UA army. Instead, it was able to turn it against itself by neither treating Wagner with the respect and legitimacy that it seeks, nor intelligently neutralizing it if that was the ruthless path it chose.

Shoigu insulted and threatened a powerful and brave private army and left them in their bases with their weapons. With their end looming ominously over them. The circumstances are not too different from what Caesar faced, before he infamously chose to cross the Rubicon.

The powers that be then, wealthy and pampered Senators in Rome, summoned Caesar to his likely end, while he presided over his fantastically loyal legions in Gaul. Prigozhin seems to be versed in history, and likely believed that he too had little choice but to cross the Rubicon.

When a rebellion comes from your patriots, from those who are only begging for the opportunity to be allowed to sacrifice more for their people, from those who think their comrades should be avenged and that justice should reign over the land, and not petty games of boot licking to see who gets what piece of the pie stolen from the working people, you know there is something wrong.

There is nothing more painful then to see this kind of rupture, to see loyal men pushed to this extent. Pushing Prigozhin into a General Hummel (who remember was ultimately bluffing if it came down to spilling the blood of thousands of his countrymen).

And you certainly don’t want it to lead to this:

So what is next?

This is heaven sent for the Ukrainian command of course; so much so that some may think Prigozhin is a western asset¹. This is possible but I think unlikely. If he is in any way in contact with them, it would be as double agent and trying to play them.

General Surovikin, one of Russia’s best, whom Prigozhin respects, and someone who speaks the same language (of warriors) also called on Wagner to turn their columns around. Though the video is somewhat odd, he claims that he was ordered urgently back from the front (to help deal with this) and does not use harsh, criminal or accusatory language against Wagner.

Hopefully he will be instrumental in brokering the deal that needs to take place.

Chechnya’s Kadyrov issued a very reasonable statement saying in effect that war is no place to succumb to petty personal disputes, and that the rear should be calm and efficiently working for the war effort. He stated that what Prigozhin did was a stab in the back (as did Putin). Akhmat units are seen in long convoys heading to Rostov.

We may see a mythic and recently only highly theoretical showdown between Wagner forces and Chechen Akhmat units (in an equal fight, without air support I believe Wagner forces would easily prevail, especially against the newly raised Akhamt unis).

This may already be occurring. Events are developing fast. It is clear that while the military leadership is stunned by the events, there is a level of understanding for Wagner and perhaps even support, especially from the middle ranks downwards. This hopefully helps translate into a peaceful settlement.

Wagner may count on 25 thousand men as it claims, or significantly less. Either way, it likely kept about 5,000 men in Rostov and others along the way in key locations as the spearheads continue on to Moscow. If it does not "win" quickly and seize the headquarters in Moscow, in any protracted confrontation it is very likely to lose. Russia is vast and so it will take time for available reserve units to reach the area, but given time they will. Wagner cannot get supplied in any meaningful way, if it doesn't succeed with its plan quickly then the units are in essence cut off. No munitions, food, water or medicine. More and more state units will surround them in pockets while the Air force continues to wear them down. It must be seriously contemplated that Wagner could seize Moscow headquarters, but only if it does so quickly. If it does not do it by tomorrow morning, it likely cannot.

So what do we have? Well the two possible scenarios without an agreement are both very bad for Russia.

If Wagner seizes Moscow, with Putin likely fleeing the city before that, the Russian Federation is likely to tear itself apart. Many republics, governors and mayors would not recognize Prigozhin as leader². The resulting chaos would likely make the Russian front line in Ukraine collapse, as formations are demoralized, not supplied and called in to fight in the emerging civil war.

If on the other hand, Wagner is stopped, and gradually bludgeoned into submission (or destruction) before reaching Moscow (or worse yet within Moscow), then this scenario is nearly as terrible for Russia. Around 25 thousand of its best fighters would be lost (killed, arrested, wounded etc) in addition to as however many they take down with them. The strategic M-4 highway and other vital locations will be blocked for days. The disruption to the front line in Ukraine would be devastating. So, a Wagner success is crippling for Russia as is a Wagner defeat.

The only non catastrophic way out of this that I can see is a deal between the sides. Because this should be obvious, hopefully it is what occurs. However, with every passing moment the deal gets harder and harder. I believe Putin erred when in a speech this morning threw in his dice with Shoigu and the MoD. Prigozhin had been careful to not criticize Putin directly, leaving the option to solve this peacefully and save face. In fact, this very occurrence is alone more than enough grounds for dismissal of Shoigu. It is his handling of the PMC that led it to outright mutiny. It is the pursuit of his personal feud with Prigozhin that drove him to issue the fatal order, while not being prepared for the eventualities in the slightest.

Putin still had room to maneuver and find a way out. For example, if indeed, MoD units had bombed the Wagner camps (as Prigozhin claims), then this alone could justify his actions in driving towards Rostov. It is not treason if it was self defense. Especially since it had been relatively bloodless so far.

Having said this, I understand Putin's decision was a very difficult one. Loyalty and honor may demand that he stand by Shoigu³. It would look weak and opportunistic to give into a mutiny. It is between a rock and a hard place, that is why I believe the real stupidity came earlier, with the MoD directive and leaving the Wagner army armed, in the rear, cornered and without options.

I also understand Prigozhin's actions at that point. The stupidity of the MoD's orders left everyone with little choice. The problem now is that I cannot imagine too many possible deals.

Prigozhin might accept disbandment (or MoD absorption) in exchange from clemency for the whole group and the dismissal of Shoigu and/or Gerasimov.

But I don't know if he would accept the end of Wagner as an independent force. And if he doesn't, it is hard to imagine the Russian state can accept that they remain one. What would that entail, that he swears to never do something like this again and listen to all orders in the future? Perhaps Wagner will be incorporated into the chain of command of the MoD somehow. It is now a very difficult negotiation, but one that I hope is successful. Ultimately, it is possible that Yevgeny Prigozhin, simply swore (as he told us) that he would avenge his boys, that come what may, he will go after Shoigu and Gerasimov. If that is the case, his fate and that of Wagner’s continued existence or independence, may be less important for him. He may be satisfied with their fall.

The western powers, that have cynically used thousands of Ukrainian men to attempt to weaken and destroy Russia, are nowhere near their goal militarily and were running out of options. If Russia tears itself apart from within, it would make the globalist crowd's day, their decade really.

They would claim that this proves what they had said all along, that Russia was weak and corrupt from within, but it would not be the case. This is not a popular uprising against Putin or even against Shoigu or anyone else. It is the actions of one specific unit and its leader, who is far bolder and smarter, than the bureaucrats that tried to destroy them.

Follow-up:

1. One statement about a day before the “March of Justice” from Prigozhin was odd and gave credence to foreign cooperation. He said that the MoD had misled the people and the President to instigate the war, and that Ukraine and NATO were not a threat to Russia, or at least were not going to attack it. Prigozhin, often speaks highly of the Ukrianian fighters, but he is always foremost interested in the national interest of Russia and in victory for her in the war. These comments seemed somewhat out of character. They potentially indicated cooperation with foreign powers or at least laying the ground work for ending the war, if he was to be in power. Whatever the reason for those comments, on the whole I still believe foreign (M-16, CIA, Ukrainian SBU..) handling of Yevgeny Prigozhin is highly unlikely.

2. Though it is hard to see Prigozhin seeking that leadership at this point. In recent weeks he addressed allegations by Strelkov of intending a coup by saying:

“We have a very respectful attitude towards the President of the Russian Federation V.V. Putin…Coups are usually carried out by the army, part of which has seceded from the army.

PMC "Wagner" is not an army at all - that's the first thing. Secondly, we have a very respectful attitude towards the President of the Russian Federation V.V. Putin, that is, on the part of PMC Wagner, I see no prerequisites for a putsch.

PMC "Wagner" will not make a coup."

3. Though there is a difference between loyalty and impunity; that is a fine line between loyalty to your subordinates and giving them a sense of impunity, which as Prigozhin points out, Shoigu and Gerasimov may be beginning to have. Folks don’t perform well if under a sense of impunity.